

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a RB Leipzig win with a probability of 68.31%. A draw had a probability of 18% and a win for Hoffenheim had a probability of 13.67%.
The most likely scoreline for a RB Leipzig win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.71%) and 1-0 (8.91%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.36%), while for a Hoffenheim win it was 1-2 (3.93%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that RB Leipzig would win this match.
| Result | ||
| RB Leipzig | Draw | Hoffenheim |
| 68.31% ( | 18.02% ( | 13.67% ( |
| Both teams to score 54.92% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 63.26% ( | 36.73% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 41.1% ( | 58.9% ( |
| RB Leipzig Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 90.19% ( | 9.81% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 67.42% ( | 32.58% ( |
| Hoffenheim Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 60.89% ( | 39.1% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 24.18% ( | 75.82% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| RB Leipzig | Draw | Hoffenheim |
| 2-0 @ 10.33% ( 2-1 @ 9.71% ( 1-0 @ 8.91% ( 3-0 @ 8% 3-1 @ 7.51% ( 4-0 @ 4.65% ( 4-1 @ 4.36% ( 3-2 @ 3.53% ( 5-0 @ 2.16% ( 4-2 @ 2.05% ( 5-1 @ 2.03% ( 5-2 @ 0.95% ( Other @ 4.12% Total : 68.3% | 1-1 @ 8.36% ( 2-2 @ 4.56% 0-0 @ 3.84% ( 3-3 @ 1.1% Other @ 0.16% Total : 18.02% | 1-2 @ 3.93% ( 0-1 @ 3.6% ( 0-2 @ 1.69% ( 2-3 @ 1.43% ( 1-3 @ 1.23% Other @ 1.79% Total : 13.67% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Bayern MunichBayern | 34 | 21 | 8 | 5 | 92 | 38 | 54 | 71 |
| 2 | Borussia DortmundDortmund | 34 | 22 | 5 | 7 | 83 | 44 | 39 | 71 |
| 3 | RB Leipzig | 34 | 20 | 6 | 8 | 64 | 41 | 23 | 66 |
| 4 | Union BerlinUnion Berlin | 34 | 18 | 8 | 8 | 51 | 38 | 13 | 62 |
| 5 | Freiburg | 34 | 17 | 8 | 9 | 51 | 44 | 7 | 59 |
| 6 | Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen | 34 | 14 | 8 | 12 | 57 | 49 | 8 | 50 |
| 7 | Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt | 34 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 58 | 52 | 6 | 50 |
| 8 | Wolfsburg | 34 | 13 | 10 | 11 | 57 | 48 | 9 | 49 |
| 9 | Mainz 05Mainz | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 54 | 55 | -1 | 46 |
| 10 | Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 52 | 55 | -3 | 43 |
| 11 | FC Koln | 34 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 49 | 54 | -5 | 42 |
| 12 | Hoffenheim | 34 | 10 | 6 | 18 | 48 | 57 | -9 | 36 |
| 13 | Werder Bremen | 34 | 10 | 6 | 18 | 51 | 64 | -13 | 36 |
| 14 | VfL BochumVfL Bochum | 34 | 10 | 5 | 19 | 40 | 72 | -32 | 35 |
| 15 | Augsburg | 34 | 9 | 7 | 18 | 42 | 63 | -21 | 34 |
| 16 | Stuttgart | 34 | 7 | 12 | 15 | 45 | 57 | -12 | 33 |
| R | Schalke 04Schalke | 34 | 7 | 10 | 17 | 35 | 71 | -36 | 31 |
| R | Hertha Berlin | 34 | 7 | 8 | 19 | 42 | 69 | -27 | 29 |
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