

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a RB Leipzig win with a probability of 39.98%. A win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 35.79% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a RB Leipzig win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.65%) and 0-2 (5.94%). The likeliest Mainz 05 win was 2-1 (8.13%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.15%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 5.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that RB Leipzig would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Mainz 05 | Draw | RB Leipzig |
| 35.79% ( | 24.22% ( | 39.98% ( |
| Both teams to score 60.47% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 57.9% ( | 42.1% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 35.5% ( | 64.5% ( |
| Mainz 05 Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.71% ( | 23.29% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 42.77% ( | 57.22% ( |
| RB Leipzig Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.83% ( | 21.17% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 45.96% ( | 54.03% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Mainz 05 | Draw | RB Leipzig |
| 2-1 @ 8.13% ( 1-0 @ 7.18% ( 2-0 @ 5.23% ( 3-1 @ 3.95% ( 3-2 @ 3.07% ( 3-0 @ 2.54% ( 4-1 @ 1.44% ( 4-2 @ 1.12% ( 4-0 @ 0.93% ( Other @ 2.21% Total : 35.79% | 1-1 @ 11.15% ( 2-2 @ 6.31% ( 0-0 @ 4.93% ( 3-3 @ 1.59% ( Other @ 0.25% Total : 24.22% | 1-2 @ 8.66% ( 0-1 @ 7.65% ( 0-2 @ 5.94% ( 1-3 @ 4.48% ( 2-3 @ 3.27% ( 0-3 @ 3.08% ( 1-4 @ 1.74% ( 2-4 @ 1.27% ( 0-4 @ 1.19% ( Other @ 2.7% Total : 39.98% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Bayern MunichBayern | 34 | 25 | 7 | 2 | 99 | 32 | 67 | 82 |
| 2 | Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen | 34 | 19 | 12 | 3 | 72 | 43 | 29 | 69 |
| 3 | Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt | 34 | 17 | 9 | 8 | 68 | 46 | 22 | 60 |
| 4 | Borussia DortmundDortmund | 34 | 17 | 6 | 11 | 71 | 51 | 20 | 57 |
| 5 | Freiburg | 34 | 16 | 7 | 11 | 49 | 53 | -4 | 55 |
| 6 | Mainz 05Mainz | 34 | 14 | 10 | 10 | 55 | 43 | 12 | 52 |
| 7 | RB Leipzig | 34 | 13 | 12 | 9 | 53 | 48 | 5 | 51 |
| 8 | Werder Bremen | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 54 | 57 | -3 | 51 |
| 9 | Stuttgart | 34 | 14 | 8 | 12 | 64 | 53 | 11 | 50 |
| 10 | Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach | 34 | 13 | 6 | 15 | 55 | 57 | -2 | 45 |
| 11 | Wolfsburg | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 56 | 54 | 2 | 43 |
| 12 | Augsburg | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 35 | 51 | -16 | 43 |
| 13 | Union BerlinUnion Berlin | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 35 | 51 | -16 | 40 |
| 14 | St Pauli | 34 | 8 | 8 | 18 | 28 | 41 | -13 | 32 |
| 15 | Hoffenheim | 34 | 7 | 11 | 16 | 46 | 68 | -22 | 32 |
| 16 | Heidenheim | 34 | 8 | 5 | 21 | 37 | 64 | -27 | 29 |
| R | Holstein Kiel | 34 | 6 | 7 | 21 | 49 | 80 | -31 | 25 |
| R | VfL BochumVfL Bochum | 34 | 6 | 7 | 21 | 33 | 67 | -34 | 25 |
| > Bundesliga Full Table | |||||||||
