
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a St Pauli win with a probability of 47.22%. A win for RB Leipzig had a probability of 30.09% and a draw had a probability of 22.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a St Pauli win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.02%) and 2-0 (6.45%). The likeliest RB Leipzig win was 1-2 (7.16%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.03%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 3.8% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| St Pauli | Draw | RB Leipzig |
| 47.22% ( | 22.69% ( | 30.09% ( |
| Both teams to score 63.88% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 63.3% ( | 36.7% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 41.14% ( | 58.86% ( |
| St Pauli Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.03% ( | 15.96% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 54.74% ( | 45.25% ( |
| RB Leipzig Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.01% ( | 23.98% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 41.77% ( | 58.22% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| St Pauli | Draw | RB Leipzig |
| 2-1 @ 9.2% ( 1-0 @ 7.02% ( 2-0 @ 6.45% ( 3-1 @ 5.63% ( 3-2 @ 4.02% ( 3-0 @ 3.94% ( 4-1 @ 2.58% ( 4-2 @ 1.84% 4-0 @ 1.81% ( 5-1 @ 0.95% ( Other @ 3.78% Total : 47.22% | 1-1 @ 10.03% ( 2-2 @ 6.57% ( 0-0 @ 3.83% ( 3-3 @ 1.91% ( Other @ 0.35% Total : 22.69% | 1-2 @ 7.16% ( 0-1 @ 5.47% ( 0-2 @ 3.9% ( 1-3 @ 3.41% ( 2-3 @ 3.13% ( 0-3 @ 1.86% ( 1-4 @ 1.22% ( 2-4 @ 1.12% ( Other @ 2.83% Total : 30.09% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Bayern MunichBayern | 34 | 25 | 7 | 2 | 99 | 32 | 67 | 82 |
| 2 | Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen | 34 | 19 | 12 | 3 | 72 | 43 | 29 | 69 |
| 3 | Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt | 34 | 17 | 9 | 8 | 68 | 46 | 22 | 60 |
| 4 | Borussia DortmundDortmund | 34 | 17 | 6 | 11 | 71 | 51 | 20 | 57 |
| 5 | Freiburg | 34 | 16 | 7 | 11 | 49 | 53 | -4 | 55 |
| 6 | Mainz 05Mainz | 34 | 14 | 10 | 10 | 55 | 43 | 12 | 52 |
| 7 | RB Leipzig | 34 | 13 | 12 | 9 | 53 | 48 | 5 | 51 |
| 8 | Werder Bremen | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 54 | 57 | -3 | 51 |
| 9 | Stuttgart | 34 | 14 | 8 | 12 | 64 | 53 | 11 | 50 |
| 10 | Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach | 34 | 13 | 6 | 15 | 55 | 57 | -2 | 45 |
| 11 | Wolfsburg | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 56 | 54 | 2 | 43 |
| 12 | Augsburg | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 35 | 51 | -16 | 43 |
| 13 | Union BerlinUnion Berlin | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 35 | 51 | -16 | 40 |
| 14 | St Pauli | 34 | 8 | 8 | 18 | 28 | 41 | -13 | 32 |
| 15 | Hoffenheim | 34 | 7 | 11 | 16 | 46 | 68 | -22 | 32 |
| 16 | Heidenheim | 34 | 8 | 5 | 21 | 37 | 64 | -27 | 29 |
| R | Holstein Kiel | 34 | 6 | 7 | 21 | 49 | 80 | -31 | 25 |
| R | VfL BochumVfL Bochum | 34 | 6 | 7 | 21 | 33 | 67 | -34 | 25 |
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