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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a St Pauli win with a probability of 48.43%. A win for Augsburg had a probability of 27.22% and a draw had a probability of 24.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a St Pauli win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.49%) and 0-2 (8.06%). The likeliest Augsburg win was 1-0 (6.96%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.49%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Augsburg | Draw | St Pauli |
| 27.22% ( | 24.35% ( | 48.43% ( |
| Both teams to score 55.91% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 53.72% ( | 46.28% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 31.43% ( | 68.57% ( |
| Augsburg Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.18% ( | 30.82% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 32.91% ( | 67.09% ( |
| St Pauli Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.81% ( | 19.19% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 49.13% ( | 50.86% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Augsburg | Draw | St Pauli |
| 1-0 @ 6.96% ( 2-1 @ 6.76% ( 2-0 @ 4.1% ( 3-1 @ 2.65% ( 3-2 @ 2.19% ( 3-0 @ 1.61% ( Other @ 2.95% Total : 27.22% | 1-1 @ 11.49% ( 0-0 @ 5.91% ( 2-2 @ 5.58% ( 3-3 @ 1.21% ( Other @ 0.16% Total : 24.35% | 0-1 @ 9.76% ( 1-2 @ 9.49% ( 0-2 @ 8.06% ( 1-3 @ 5.22% ( 0-3 @ 4.44% ( 2-3 @ 3.07% ( 1-4 @ 2.16% ( 0-4 @ 1.83% ( 2-4 @ 1.27% ( Other @ 3.14% Total : 48.43% |

| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Bayern MunichBayern | 34 | 25 | 7 | 2 | 99 | 32 | 67 | 82 |
| 2 | Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen | 34 | 19 | 12 | 3 | 72 | 43 | 29 | 69 |
| 3 | Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt | 34 | 17 | 9 | 8 | 68 | 46 | 22 | 60 |
| 4 | Borussia DortmundDortmund | 34 | 17 | 6 | 11 | 71 | 51 | 20 | 57 |
| 5 | Freiburg | 34 | 16 | 7 | 11 | 49 | 53 | -4 | 55 |
| 6 | Mainz 05Mainz | 34 | 14 | 10 | 10 | 55 | 43 | 12 | 52 |
| 7 | RB Leipzig | 34 | 13 | 12 | 9 | 53 | 48 | 5 | 51 |
| 8 | Werder Bremen | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 54 | 57 | -3 | 51 |
| 9 | Stuttgart | 34 | 14 | 8 | 12 | 64 | 53 | 11 | 50 |
| 10 | Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach | 34 | 13 | 6 | 15 | 55 | 57 | -2 | 45 |
| 11 | Wolfsburg | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 56 | 54 | 2 | 43 |
| 12 | Augsburg | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 35 | 51 | -16 | 43 |
| 13 | Union BerlinUnion Berlin | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 35 | 51 | -16 | 40 |
| 14 | St Pauli | 34 | 8 | 8 | 18 | 28 | 41 | -13 | 32 |
| 15 | Hoffenheim | 34 | 7 | 11 | 16 | 46 | 68 | -22 | 32 |
| 16 | Heidenheim | 34 | 8 | 5 | 21 | 37 | 64 | -27 | 29 |
| R | Holstein Kiel | 34 | 6 | 7 | 21 | 49 | 80 | -31 | 25 |
| R | VfL BochumVfL Bochum | 34 | 6 | 7 | 21 | 33 | 67 | -34 | 25 |
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