Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Western Sydney Wanderers win with a probability of 50.87%. A win for Macarthur had a probability of 27.72% and a draw had a probability of 21.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Western Sydney Wanderers win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (6.25%) and 3-1 (6.22%). The likeliest Macarthur win was 1-2 (6.59%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.99%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Western Sydney Wanderers would win this match.