Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Celje win with a probability of 69.75%. A draw had a probability of 17.5% and a win for Nafta had a probability of 12.75%.
The most likely scoreline for a Celje win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.62%) and 1-0 (8.96%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.14%), while for a Nafta win it was 1-2 (3.7%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Celje would win this match.