Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Brescia win with a probability of 46.31%. A win for Perugia had a probability of 27.97% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Brescia win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.19%) and 2-0 (8.29%). The likeliest Perugia win was 0-1 (8.14%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.23%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Brescia would win this match.
