Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fiorentina win with a probability of 47.35%. A win for Sassuolo had a probability of 27% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fiorentina win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.26%) and 2-0 (8.57%). The likeliest Sassuolo win was 0-1 (8.04%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.2%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Fiorentina | Draw | Sassuolo | 
| 47.35% | 25.65% | 27% | 
| Both teams to score 51.58% | 
| Goals | 
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 
| 48.12% | 51.88% | 
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 | 
| 26.37% | 73.63% | 
| Fiorentina Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 78.09% | 21.91% | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 44.82% | 55.18% | 
| Sassuolo Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 66.06% | 33.94% | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 29.38% | 70.62% | 
| Score Analysis | 
| Fiorentina | Draw | Sassuolo | 
| 1-0 @ 11.29% 2-1 @ 9.26% 2-0 @ 8.57% 3-1 @ 4.69% 3-0 @ 4.34% 3-2 @ 2.53% 4-1 @ 1.78% 4-0 @ 1.65% 4-2 @ 0.96% Other @ 2.28% Total : 47.35% | 1-1 @ 12.2% 0-0 @ 7.44% 2-2 @ 5% 3-3 @ 0.91% Other @ 0.1% Total : 25.65% | 0-1 @ 8.04% 1-2 @ 6.59% 0-2 @ 4.34% 1-3 @ 2.37% 2-3 @ 1.8% 0-3 @ 1.56% Other @ 2.29% Total : 27% | 
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Napoli | 16 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 37 | 13 | 24 | 41 | 
| 2 | Juventus | 17 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 26 | 7 | 19 | 37 | 
| 3 | AC Milan | 16 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 31 | 16 | 15 | 36 | 
| 4 | Inter Milan | 17 | 11 | 1 | 5 | 37 | 24 | 13 | 34 | 
| 5 | Lazio | 16 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 27 | 13 | 14 | 30 | 
| 6 | Roma | 16 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 19 | 14 | 5 | 30 | 
| 7 | Atalanta BCAtalanta | 16 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 24 | 17 | 7 | 28 | 
| 8 | Udinese | 17 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 25 | 19 | 6 | 25 | 
| 9 | Fiorentina | 17 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 21 | 22 | -1 | 23 | 
| 10 | Torino | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 17 | 18 | -1 | 22 | 
| 11 | Bologna | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 20 | 26 | -6 | 19 | 
| 12 | Lecce | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 16 | 18 | -2 | 18 | 
| 13 | Monza | 17 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 19 | 25 | -6 | 18 | 
| 14 | Empoli | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 13 | 20 | -7 | 18 | 
| 15 | Salernitana | 16 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 20 | 26 | -6 | 17 | 
| 16 | SassuoloSassuolo | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 17 | 26 | -9 | 16 | 
| 17 | SpeziaSpezia | 16 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 16 | 28 | -12 | 14 | 
| 18 | Sampdoria | 16 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 8 | 28 | -20 | 9 | 
| 19 | Cremonese | 16 | 0 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 27 | -16 | 7 | 
| 20 | Hellas VeronaHellas Verona | 16 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 13 | 30 | -17 | 6 | 
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