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Serie A | Gameweek 7
Oct 6, 2024 at 7.45pm UK
Stadio Artemio Franchi
Milan logo

Fiorentina
2 - 1
AC Milan

Adli (35'), Gudmundsson (73')
Dodo (8'), Bove (90+5')
Palladino (86')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Pulisic (60')
Tomori (24'), Fonseca (32'), Morata (43'), Reijnders (72')
Hernandez (90+6')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Serie A clash between Fiorentina and AC Milan, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Fiorentina 2-0 New Saints
Thursday, October 3 at 8pm in Conference League
Last Game: B. Leverkusen 1-0 AC Milan
Tuesday, October 1 at 8pm in Champions League

We said: Fiorentina 1-1 AC Milan

Though Milan's domestic form is on the rise, Fiorentina are rarely beaten on Tuscan turf and should be able to resist their visitors from the second city. The Rossoneri are still vulnerable at the back, so the Viola can score at least once and add another point to their modest Serie A tally. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fiorentina win with a probability of 59.11%. A draw had a probability of 21% and a win for AC Milan had a probability of 19.84%.

The most likely scoreline for a Fiorentina win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.02%) and 1-0 (8.84%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.71%), while for an AC Milan win it was 1-2 (5.33%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Fiorentina in this match.

Result
FiorentinaDrawAC Milan
59.11% (0.43 0.43) 21.05% (-0.077000000000002 -0.08) 19.84% (-0.353 -0.35)
Both teams to score 57.99% (-0.33600000000001 -0.34)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
60.72% (-0.159 -0.16)39.28% (0.158 0.16)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
38.38% (-0.169 -0.17)61.62% (0.167 0.17)
Fiorentina Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
87% (0.073999999999998 0.07)13% (-0.074999999999999 -0.07)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
60.48% (0.154 0.15)39.51% (-0.15499999999999 -0.15)
AC Milan Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
66.65% (-0.444 -0.44)33.35% (0.442 0.44)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
30.03% (-0.487 -0.49)69.97% (0.485 0.48)
Score Analysis
    Fiorentina 59.11%
    AC Milan 19.84%
    Draw 21.05%
FiorentinaDrawAC Milan
2-1 @ 9.91% (0.010999999999999 0.01)
2-0 @ 9.02% (0.118 0.12)
1-0 @ 8.84% (0.090999999999999 0.09)
3-1 @ 6.74% (0.027 0.03)
3-0 @ 6.14% (0.098 0.1)
3-2 @ 3.7% (-0.03 -0.03)
4-1 @ 3.44% (0.023 0.02)
4-0 @ 3.13% (0.059 0.06)
4-2 @ 1.89% (-0.01 -0.01)
5-1 @ 1.4% (0.013 0.01)
5-0 @ 1.28% (0.028 0.03)
Other @ 3.62%
Total : 59.11%
1-1 @ 9.71% (-0.016999999999999 -0.02)
2-2 @ 5.44% (-0.059 -0.06)
0-0 @ 4.33% (0.032 0.03)
3-3 @ 1.36% (-0.027 -0.03)
Other @ 0.21%
Total : 21.05%
1-2 @ 5.33% (-0.073 -0.07)
0-1 @ 4.76% (-0.021999999999999 -0.02)
0-2 @ 2.61% (-0.044 -0.04)
2-3 @ 1.99% (-0.046 -0.05)
1-3 @ 1.95% (-0.051 -0.05)
0-3 @ 0.96% (-0.027 -0.03)
Other @ 2.23%
Total : 19.84%

How you voted: Fiorentina vs AC Milan

Fiorentina
22.8%
Draw
25.7%
AC Milan
51.5%
167
Head to Head
Mar 30, 2024 7.45pm
Gameweek 30
Fiorentina
1-2
AC Milan
Duncan (50')
Biraghi (13'), Martinez (24')
Loftus-Cheek (47'), Leao (53')
Thiaw (21'), Tomori (89'), Loftus-Cheek (90+3')
Nov 25, 2023 7.45pm
Gameweek 13
AC Milan
1-0
Fiorentina
Hernandez (45+2' pen.)
Tomori (56'), Pioli (77')

Arthur (12'), Parisi (45+1')
Mar 4, 2023 7.45pm
Gameweek 25
Fiorentina
2-1
AC Milan
Gonzalez (49' pen.), Jovic (87')
Hernandez (90+5')
Nov 13, 2022 5pm
Gameweek 15
AC Milan
2-1
Fiorentina
Leao (2'), Milenkovic (90+2' og.)
Barak (28')
May 1, 2022 2pm
Gameweek 35
AC Milan
1-0
Fiorentina
Leao (82')
Bennacer (88')

Maleh (2'), Venuti (42'), Martinez (72')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
CNapoli382410459273282
2Inter Milan38249579354481
3Atalanta BCAtalanta38228878374174
4Juventus381816458352370
5Roma38209956352169
6Fiorentina381981160411965
7Lazio381811961491265
8AC Milan381891161431863
9Bologna381614857471062
10Como381310154952-349
11Torino381014143945-644
12Udinese38128184156-1544
13Genoa381013153749-1243
14Hellas VeronaHellas Verona38107213466-3237
15CagliariCagliari3899204056-1636
16Parma38715164458-1436
17Lecce38810202758-3134
18Empoli38613193359-2631
19VeneziaVenezia38514193256-2429
RMonza3839262869-4118


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