We said: Empoli 0-1 Cagliari
Though Empoli rested several key men in midweek, even their first-choice side have produced just one home win all season - and a meagre five league goals at the Castellani.
Having also conceded the most times (27) during the final half-hour this season, they could fade again, allowing Cagliari to finish strongly and take one step closer to safety.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cagliari win with a probability of 38.26%. A win for Empoli had a probability of 32.69% and a draw had a probability of 29%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cagliari win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.73%) and 0-2 (7.39%). The likeliest Empoli win was 1-0 (11.55%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.36%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with an 11% likelihood.
1.76) 
-0.27) 
