
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chesterfield win with a probability of 64.28%. A draw had a probability of 19.9% and a win for York City had a probability of 15.77%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chesterfield win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10%) and 2-1 (9.91%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.39%), while for a York City win it was 0-1 (4.45%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 1.4% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Chesterfield | Draw | York City | 
| 64.28% (  -0.14) | 19.95% (  0.02) | 15.77% (  0.12) | 
| Both teams to score 53.5% (  0.23) | 
| Goals | 
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 
| 58.75% (  0.16) | 41.24% (  -0.17) | 
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 | 
| 36.36% (  0.17) | 63.64% (  -0.17) | 
| Chesterfield Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 87.87% (  0.01) | 12.13% (  -0.01) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 62.28% (  0.02) | 37.71% (  -0.02) | 
| York City Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 60.88% (  0.26) | 39.11% (  -0.26) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 24.17% (  0.24) | 75.83% (  -0.24) | 
| Score Analysis | 
| Chesterfield | Draw | York City | 
| 2-0 @ 10.55% (  -0.07) 1-0 @ 10% (  -0.07) 2-1 @ 9.91% (  0) 3-0 @ 7.42% (  -0.05) 3-1 @ 6.97% (  0.01) 4-0 @ 3.92% (  -0.02) 4-1 @ 3.68% (  0) 3-2 @ 3.27% (  0.03) 4-2 @ 1.73% (  0.01) 5-0 @ 1.65% (  -0.01) 5-1 @ 1.55% (  0) Other @ 3.63% Total : 64.27% | 1-1 @ 9.39% (  -0) 0-0 @ 4.74% (  -0.04) 2-2 @ 4.65% (  0.03) 3-3 @ 1.02% (  0.01) Other @ 0.14% Total : 19.95% | 0-1 @ 4.45% (  -0) 1-2 @ 4.41% (  0.03) 0-2 @ 2.09% (  0.01) 2-3 @ 1.46% (  0.02) 1-3 @ 1.38% (  0.02) Other @ 1.98% Total : 15.77% | 
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Wrexham | 46 | 34 | 9 | 3 | 116 | 43 | 73 | 111 | 
| 2 | Notts County | 46 | 32 | 11 | 3 | 117 | 42 | 75 | 107 | 
| 3 | Chesterfield | 46 | 25 | 9 | 12 | 81 | 52 | 29 | 84 | 
| 4 | Woking | 46 | 24 | 10 | 12 | 71 | 48 | 23 | 82 | 
| 5 | Barnet | 46 | 21 | 11 | 14 | 75 | 67 | 8 | 74 | 
| 6 | Boreham WoodBoreham Wood | 46 | 19 | 15 | 12 | 52 | 40 | 12 | 72 | 
| 7 | Bromley | 46 | 18 | 17 | 11 | 68 | 53 | 15 | 71 | 
| 8 | Southend UnitedSouthend | 46 | 20 | 9 | 17 | 57 | 45 | 12 | 69 | 
| 9 | Eastleigh | 46 | 19 | 10 | 17 | 56 | 57 | -1 | 67 | 
| 10 | Dagenham & RedbridgeDag & Red | 46 | 18 | 9 | 19 | 61 | 72 | -11 | 63 | 
| 11 | Halifax TownHalifax | 46 | 16 | 13 | 17 | 49 | 48 | 1 | 61 | 
| 12 | Oldham AthleticOldham | 46 | 16 | 13 | 17 | 63 | 64 | -1 | 61 | 
| 13 | WealdstoneWealdstone | 46 | 16 | 12 | 18 | 57 | 72 | -15 | 60 | 
| 14 | Gateshead | 46 | 15 | 15 | 16 | 67 | 62 | 5 | 59 | 
| 15 | Solihull MoorsSolihull | 46 | 15 | 13 | 18 | 62 | 66 | -4 | 58 | 
| 16 | Dorking WanderersDorking | 46 | 16 | 9 | 21 | 67 | 91 | -24 | 57 | 
| 17 | AltrinchamAltrincham | 46 | 14 | 14 | 18 | 68 | 82 | -14 | 56 | 
| 18 | Aldershot TownAldershot | 46 | 14 | 11 | 21 | 64 | 76 | -12 | 53 | 
| 19 | York City | 46 | 13 | 12 | 21 | 55 | 63 | -8 | 51 | 
| 20 | Maidenhead UnitedMaidenhead | 46 | 13 | 11 | 22 | 47 | 66 | -19 | 50 | 
| R | Torquay UnitedTorquay Utd | 46 | 12 | 12 | 22 | 58 | 80 | -22 | 48 | 
| R | Yeovil TownYeovil | 46 | 7 | 19 | 20 | 35 | 60 | -25 | 40 | 
| R | Scunthorpe UnitedScunthorpe | 46 | 8 | 10 | 28 | 49 | 87 | -38 | 34 | 
| R | Maidstone UnitedMaidstone | 46 | 5 | 10 | 31 | 45 | 104 | -59 | 25 | 
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