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Arsenal logo
Champions League | Quarter-Finals | 1st Leg
Apr 8, 2025 at 8pm UK
Emirates Stadium
Real Madrid logo

Arsenal
3 - 0
Real Madrid

Rice (58', 70'), Merino (75')
Partey (54')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Camavinga (69')
Camavinga (90+4')

Arsenal 3-0 Real Madrid: Gunners' success hands Man City a helping hand in Champions League qualification race

Arsenal hand Man City's Champions League hopes a boost thanks to Real Madrid win
© Imago
Arsenal's commanding 3-0 win over Real Madrid secures a fifth Champions League spot for English clubs next season.

Arsenal's 3-0 win over Real Madrid at the Emirates has confirmed that the Premier League will have at least five clubs playing in the league phase of the Champions League next season.

It has been a matter of when, not if, this would become official, following a strong showing from all of England's clubs across the three UEFA competitions so far this season.

All seven clubs from England progressed to the knockout stages, with only Manchester City and Liverpool failing to reach the quarter-finals which are taking place this week.

Coefficient points are all worth the same no matter what competition they are earned in, so Chelsea's dominance in the Conference League has also played a huge factor in England amassing so many points.

Despite Inter Milan also winning at Bayern Munich tonight, boosting Italy's chances of catching Spain for the second additional spot, Arsenal's victory has put England out of sight at the top of the coefficient.

Manchester City boss Pep Guardiola during his side's Premier League match against Brentford, on January 14, 2025© Imago

Who is set to take the fifth and final spot?

Quite surprisingly, England were pipped by Germany and Italy in the coefficient rankings last season, but this year's selection of clubs have performed much better, with the potential still alive for a clean sweep of all three UEFA competitions.

Every win, draw and progression in each competition adds points to the coefficient, and the Gunners' commanding victory tonight took England to 24.536, a long way clear of Italy on 20.187.

That is brilliant news for the likes of Manchester City, Newcastle United, Chelsea, Aston Villa and in particular Nottingham Forest, who can now breathe slightly easier in third, as they seek to return after four decades away from the European stage.

Assuming Forest are able to hang on to third place, that will leave a potential four-team fight for the final two places, with just two points separating the clubs between fourth and seventh, while Fulham and Brighton & Hove Albion are still in the mix.

More dropped points by Pep Guardiola's City at the weekend means there is still a very real chance they will miss out on the top five, especially when it is taken into consideration a Newcastle side one place above them and riding the crest of a wave still have a game in hand.

Liverpool and Arsenal are nailed on to be in the UCL next season, while Man City, Forest and Newcastle are all given strong chances above 70% by Opta, with Chelsea down on 40%.

Aston Villa's chances are rated just below 20% even though they are just two points adrift, while Fulham's win over Liverpool at the weekend moved them to within three points of Unai Emery's side, and has given them an outside chance at 2%.

Aston Villa manager Unai Emery on January 21, 2025© Imago

Could seven English teams qualify for the Champions League?

However, there is another twist, because a specific set of circumstances could see the Premier League awarded a whopping seven Champions League spots next season.

If Aston Villa were to pull off an astonishing Champions League success, but finish outside the top four, that would see them still qualify for the competition next season as holders, but also grant a sixth team the privilege, as that would not override the fact England are leading the coefficient.

Not only that, England will have another additional team in the competition if Manchester United or Tottenham Hotspur win the Europa League, because there is no chance of either of those two clubs finishing in the top four, but that achievement will also grant them a place in the UCL.

That is not helpful to any of the clubs chasing the Champions League via their Premier League placing, but could still make for a remarkable dynamic in next season's competition.

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Written by
Andrew Delaney
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