A place in the knockout stages of the 2025 COSAFA Cup is on the line for Madagascar when they lock horns with Eswatini in their final group-stage clash at Dr Petrus Molemela Stadium on Monday afternoon.
Having made a winning start to proceedings, Madagascar need just one point here to secure safe passage into the next round, but standing in their way is an Eswatini outfit who will be looking to get themselves underway with maximum points.
Match preview
Back in action for the first time since a 3-0 loss to Ghana in the March international break, Madagascar just about did enough to edge out Tanzania in their COSAFA Cup curtain-raiser and put themselves in the driving seat to make it out of Group C.
Corentin Martins's men, who have blown hot and cold in front of goal recently, needed just one to get the job done this time around, and it came moments before the half-hour mark courtesy of Toky Rakotondraibe.
The Barea are now on the verge of reaching the COSAFA Cup semi-finals for the first time in seven years after their superb run in 2018 when they picked up seven of nine points in the group stages before seeing off South Africa in the last eight.
Madagascar's upcoming clash against Eswatini is the third between the sides in the space of six months, following December's two-legged encounter for a place in August's African Nations Championship.
Despite falling to a 1-0 defeat in the second leg, Madagascar's 2-0 victory in the opening clash saw them secure safe passage into the upcoming continental showpiece, although their record in this fixture now stands at one win from four matches.
Eswatini are perennial COSAFA Cup participants but have never quite managed to go all the way or even reach the final, with their third-place finish in 2021 matching their 2016 heroics as their best-ever showing at this level.
However, Zdravko Logarusic's men have only gone out in the group phase in one of their six most recent appearances in this tournament since suffering seven consecutive early exits between 2005 and 2015.
The Sihlangu Semnikati have been in decent form of late, having gone unbeaten in three straight matches across all competitions, although their last defeat did come at the hands of Madagascar in the final knockings of 2024.
Eswatini netted three times en route to a thrilling stalemate against Mauritius last time out, but prior to that, they had drawn blanks in three of the four outings and will need to rediscover their touch in attack to boost their chances of a good display in South Africa.
While a defeat on Monday would spell the end of their COSAFA Cup dreams at the first involvement, a draw for Eswatini would keep Group C finely poised ahead of their final outing against Tanzania on Wednesday.
Madagascar COSAFA Cup form:
Madagascar form (all competitions):
Eswatini form (all competitions):
Team News
The vastly experienced Arohasina Andrianarimanana was unsurprisingly given the captain's armband in the win over Tanzania and will be tasked with leading the charges once again.
Toky Rakotondraibe put on a solid display before he was replaced by Felicite Mantasoa in the aforementioned game, so he should keep his starting berth for this one.
Eswatini captain Felix Badenhorst has issued a rallying call to his teammates to go for glory and will need to lead from the front to set the tone for others to follow.
Nineteen-year-old Eversley midfielder Tommy Morgan only just recently made his international debut for Eswatini but has been selected for the COSAFA Cup.
Madagascar possible starting lineup:
Toldo; Avotra, Claude, Nicolas, Hajatiana; Randrianirina, Rakotoson, Dax; Cristiano, Fenohasina, Toky
Eswatini possible starting lineup:
Dlamini; Thwala, Langa, Gamedze, Zwane; Kunene, Magagula, Tfomo; Mkhonto, Badenhorst, Ndzinisa
We say: Madagascar 0-0 Eswatini
With so much at stake here, we can see this game taking the attritional route and ending in a share of the spoils come the end of the 90 minutes.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Eswatini win with a probability of 38.17%. A win for Madagascar has a probability of 31.33% and a draw has a probability of 30.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Eswatini win is 0-1 with a probability of 14.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 0-2 (7.67%) and 1-2 (7.28%). The likeliest Madagascar win is 1-0 (12.47%), while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (13.47%).