Saturday, June 7

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Sports Mole previews Monday's World Cup Qualifying - Europe clash between Italy and Moldova, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

After making a disastrous start to their World Cup 2026 qualifying campaign, Italy will try to get back on track by beating Moldova on Monday.

Having lost 3-0 to Norway in their first Group I game, the Azzurri already face the prospect of another nerve-shredding playoff, as they aim to avoid missing a third straight global finals. 

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Match preview

Despite dominating the ball at Oslo's Ullevaal Stadion, Italy put up a tame response to going three goals down by half time in their opening Group I fixture, as Norway serenely stretched their lead at the top.

Repeatedly stung on the counter, the Azzurri failed to pose any threat up front, with a stoppage-time header from substitute striker Lorenzo Lucca accounting for their sole shot on target.

Though there are still seven games to play, missing out on direct qualification for next year's tournament is already likely, as Luciano Spalletti's side lie nine points adrift of their Norwegian counterparts - albeit with two games in hand.

While Estonia and Moldova are rank outsiders, Italy may have to compete with Israel to take the playoff route, so there is a distinct risk of missing their third straight World Cup finals. 

Their last appearance was a group-stage exit at Brazil 2014, so the four-time winners are simply desperate to be involved in next summer's global gathering.

Beaten by Sweden on the road to Russia, La Nazionale then suffered an infamous loss to North Macedonia in the playoffs for Qatar 2022, so history weighs heavily on under-pressure Spalletti.

The ex-Napoli coach could even be sacked, having indicated he will hold talks with the Italian FA after Monday's match in Reggio Emilia, which is naturally a must-win.

After a meek exit from Euro 2024 and their loss in this year's UEFA Nations League quarter-finals, the dismal nature of Italy's latest setback represents a new low, so they must start to make amends at the Mapei Stadium. 

Naturally, Moldova will still be long-shot underdogs at the home of recently promoted Serie A club Sassuolo - particularly given their head-to-head record with Italy.

The Tricolorii have lost all four previous World Cup qualifiers between the two nations by an aggregate score of 9-2 and were thumped 6-0 in their most recent meeting - a friendly fixture five years ago.

Joining the Azzurri on zero points at the foot of Group I, Serghei Clescenco's side kicked off their latest campaign with a 5-0 defeat at the hands of Norway before losing 3-2 at home to Estonia.

Preceded by a 1-1 draw with Gibraltar to end 2024, those springtime defeats were followed by Friday's 2-0 friendly loss in Poland.

Toppling Italy would cause an even more significant shock than their 3-2 defeat of the Poles during Euro 2024 qualifying, but Moldova may hope to take advantage of their hosts' growing anxiety.

Italy World Cup Qualifying - Europe form:

Italy form (all competitions):

Moldova World Cup Qualifying - Europe form:

Moldova form (all competitions):

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Team News

Though Luciano Spalletti has confirmed he will persist with his 3-5-2 formation, the Italy coach also made it clear that he will make changes following the fiasco in Norway. 

Fresh minds and fresh legs could be introduced by promoting the likes of Andrea Cambiaso, Samuele Ricci and Davide Frattesi to the hosts' starting XI. 

Spalletti's original plans were hit by several withdrawals, as Fiorentina striker Moise Kean and Juventus midfielder Manuel Locatelli joined defensive trio Riccardo Calafiori, Alessandro Buongiorno and Matteo Gabbia in pulling out; Francesco Acerbi turned down a recall, citing a lack of respect.

Debutant Diego Coppola struggled after surprisingly starting in the back three last time out, and it remains to be seen who will line up in front of captain Gianluigi Donnarumma on Monday.

Meanwhile, Moldova will be without Otelul Galati winger Maxim Cojocaru, who must serve a suspension after his red card against Estonia in March.

Torino teenager Sergiu Perciun made his senior debut as a substitute against Poland, so he will contend for a start on his return to Italy, where veteran midfielder Artur Ionita has played most of his career.

In attack, lone striker Ion Nicolaescu - the Tricolorii's all-time top scorer with 17 goals - should be supported by Slaven Belupo forward Mihail Caimacov.

Italy possible starting lineup: Donnarumma; Di Lorenzo, Ranieri, Bastoni; Cambiaso, Frattesi, Ricci, Tonali, Udogie; Raspadori, Retegui

Moldova possible starting lineup: Avram; Platica, Posmac, Baboglo, Mudrac, Reabciuk; Caicamov, Motpan, Rata, Ionita; Nicolaescu

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We say: Italy 3-0 Moldova

 

Even at a low ebb, Italy should ease to victory over minnows Moldova, who leak goals at an alarming rate.

It may not be pretty, but getting off the mark with three points is all that matters to the anxious Azzurri.

For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.

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