Uganda and Gambia are set to face off in an international friendly on Monday, with both nations seeking their first victory in this fixture’s history, having drawn their only previous meeting.
The Cranes approach this match following a heavy 3-0 defeat to Cameroon on Friday, a result they will be eager to move on from as they look to return to winning ways.
Match preview
Uganda have now suffered two defeats in their last three outings across all competitions, with the loss to Cameroon and a 3-1 World Cup qualifying setback against Mozambique coming either side of a narrow 1-0 win over Guinea, which was also part of their World Cup qualification campaign.
Despite this recent inconsistency, the Cranes have generally enjoyed a positive run of form over the past year, recording seven victories from their last 11 matches in all competitions, with Friday’s loss representing just their third in that stretch.
This encouraging form has helped them secure qualification for the Africa Cup of Nations set to take place in Morocco, while they currently occupy fourth place in their World Cup qualifying group, six points adrift of leaders Algeria and three behind second-placed Mozambique, with four fixtures still to play.
However, friendly matches have not been as fruitful for Uganda, who have managed just one win from their last 11 such games, that solitary success coming against Kuwait in January 2024, a trend they will be keen to reverse against the Scorpions.
Uganda will be hoping to make a statement in this contest despite once again being without head coach Paul Put, who remains sidelined through illness, leaving assistant coach Sam Ssimbwa to take charge of proceedings once more.
Gambia, meanwhile, ended a frustrating run of six matches without a win in normal time by defeating Equatorial Guinea 2-1 on Friday, thanks to a well-taken brace from Adama Sidibeh, providing a much-needed morale boost ahead of this clash.
The only other victory the Scorpions managed in that period came via a penalty shoot-out against Gabon in a CHAN qualifier, although they were eliminated in the following round by Algeria.
Their form has clearly dipped over the past year, failing to qualify for the upcoming AFCON following appearances in the previous two editions, and are currently fifth-place standing in their World Cup qualifying group with only four points from six matches.
Head coach Johnny McKinstry, who previously enjoyed a successful 18-month stint with Uganda between 2019 and 2021, posted a 67 percent win rate during his time in charge of the Cranes – the best record by any Uganda national team manager in over 15 years – with 12 wins, three draws and just three defeats from 18 matches.
However, his current tenure with Gambia has yet to yield consistent results, as he has managed only five victories from 15 games at the helm and is still seeking to register back-to-back wins for the first time.
Uganda form (all competitions):
Gambia form (all competitions):
Team News
Uganda striker Steven Mukwala was forced to withdraw from the squad prior to the defeat to Cameroon after sustaining an injury while in action for Tanzanian side Simba SC, ruling him out of contention once again.
Nico Wadada, who earned his first national team call-up since 2021, did not feature in the previous fixture but will be hopeful of making an appearance this time around.
For Gambia, McKinstry handed international call-ups to 12 new players for this month’s friendlies, with only six members of the current 23-man squad having previously represented the national team before his appointment in June 2024.
Goalkeeper Baboucarr Gaye returned between the sticks for the first time in 17 months, while five debutants – Sainey Sanyang, Gibril Sillah, Alagie Saine, Abdoulie Manneh and Mouhamadou Drammeh – were handed starting berths in the win over Equatorial Guinea.
Uganda possible starting lineup:
Nafian; Obita, Bwomono, Capradossi, Semakula; Byaruhanga, Oyirwoth, Mato; Okello, Kiwanuka, Omedi
Gambia possible starting lineup:
B. Gaye; Sanyang, O. Gaye, Saine, Njie, Sanneh; Manneh, Drammeh; Sillah, Sidibeh, A. Manneh
We say: Uganda 1-1 Gambia
Both sides come into this contest with plenty to prove, and while Uganda possess the stronger recent record, Gambia's morale-boosting win over Equatorial Guinea could give them momentum.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Uganda win with a probability of 44.1%. A draw has a probability of 30.7% and a win for Gambia has a probability of 25.22%.
The most likely scoreline for a Uganda win is 1-0 with a probability of 16.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-0 (9.49%) and 2-1 (7.52%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 0-0 (14.31%), while for a Gambia win it is 0-1 (11.34%).