UEFA Nations League header

UEFA Nations League

Italy national football team
Nations League | Quarter-Finals | 1st Leg
Mar 20, 2025 at 7.45pm UK
Stadio Giuseppe Meazza
Germany national football team

Italy
1 - 2
Germany

Tonali (9')
Rovella (52'), Maldini (74')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Kleindienst (49'), Goretzka (76')
Amiri (55')

The Match

Match Report

Bayern Munich's Joshua Kimmich provides two assists to help Germany come from behind to beat Italy 2-1 in their UEFA Nations League quarter-final first leg.

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Nations League clash between Italy and Germany, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Predicted Lineups

Sports Mole takes an in-depth look at how Italy could line up for Thursday's UEFA Nations League quarter-final clash with Germany.

Form, Standings, Stats

Italy

All competitions
Last Game: Italy 1-3 France
Sunday, November 17 at 7.45pm in Nations League

Germany

All competitions
Last Game: Hungary 1-1 Germany
Tuesday, November 19 at 7.45pm in Nations League

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Italy win with a probability of 41.56%. A win for Germany had a probability of 34.78% and a draw had a probability of 23.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Italy win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.2%) and 2-0 (5.91%). The likeliest Germany win was 1-2 (7.94%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.69%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.9% likelihood.

Result
ItalyDrawGermany
41.56% (-0.184 -0.18)23.66% (0.0050000000000026 0.01)34.78% (0.181 0.18)
Both teams to score 62.36% (0.036999999999999 0.04)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
60.45% (0.026000000000003 0.03)39.55% (-0.024999999999999 -0.02)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
38.1% (0.027999999999999 0.03)61.89% (-0.027000000000001 -0.03)
Italy Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
80.63% (-0.069999999999993 -0.07)19.36% (0.071000000000002 0.07)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
48.84% (-0.116 -0.12)51.15% (0.116 0.12)
Germany Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
77.34% (0.111 0.11)22.66% (-0.111 -0.11)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
43.7% (0.164 0.16)56.3% (-0.163 -0.16)
Score Analysis
    Italy 41.56%
    Germany 34.78%
    Draw 23.66%
ItalyDrawGermany
2-1 @ 8.78% (-0.021000000000001 -0.02)
1-0 @ 7.2% (-0.024 -0.02)
2-0 @ 5.91% (-0.034 -0.03)
3-1 @ 4.8% (-0.021999999999999 -0.02)
3-2 @ 3.57% (-0.0050000000000003 -0.01)
3-0 @ 3.24% (-0.026 -0.03)
4-1 @ 1.97% (-0.013 -0.01)
4-2 @ 1.46% (-0.0050000000000001 -0.01)
4-0 @ 1.33% (-0.014 -0.01)
Other @ 3.29%
Total : 41.56%
1-1 @ 10.69%
2-2 @ 6.52% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
0-0 @ 4.39% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
3-3 @ 1.77% (0.004 0)
Other @ 0.3%
Total : 23.66%
1-2 @ 7.94% (0.024 0.02)
0-1 @ 6.51% (0.014 0.01)
0-2 @ 4.84% (0.026 0.03)
1-3 @ 3.93% (0.025 0.02)
2-3 @ 3.23% (0.014 0.01)
0-3 @ 2.39% (0.021 0.02)
1-4 @ 1.46% (0.014 0.01)
2-4 @ 1.2% (0.0090000000000001 0.01)
Other @ 3.29%
Total : 34.78%

How you voted: Italy vs Germany

Italy
49.8%
Draw
21.4%
Germany
28.8%
323
Head to Head
Jun 14, 2022 7.45pm
League A
Germany
5-2
Italy
Kimmich (10'), Gundogan (45+4' pen.), Muller (51'), Werner (68', 69')
Rudiger (61'), Sane (82')
Gnonto (78'), Bastoni (90+4')
> Preview
Jun 4, 2022 7.45pm
League A
Italy
1-1
Germany
Pellegrini (70')
Pellegrini (51'), Florenzi (62'), Tonali (66'), Bastoni (80'), Cancellieri (90+4')
Kimmich (73')
Kehrer (62'), Havertz (83'), Werner (89')
> Preview
Mar 31, 2020 7.45pm
International Friendlies
Germany
P-P
Italy
Nov 15, 2016 7.45pm
International Friendlies
Italy
0-0
Germany
Tah (61'), Gundogan (84')
> Match Report
Jul 2, 2016 8pm
Quarter-Finals
Germany
1-1
Italy
Ozil (65')
Hummels (90'), Schweinsteiger (112')
Bonucci (78' pen.)
Sturaro (56'), De Sciglio (57'), Parolo (59'), Pelle (91'), Giaccherini (103')
> Match Report
rhs 2.0
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