Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Philadelphia Union win with a probability of 57.6%. A win for CF Montreal had a probability of 21.25% and a draw had a probability of 21.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Philadelphia Union win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.42%) and 1-0 (8.24%). The likeliest CF Montreal win was 1-2 (5.61%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.62%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Philadelphia Union would win this match.