Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Osasuna win with a probability of 37.02%. A win for Rayo Vallecano had a probability of 35.22% and a draw had a probability of 27.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Osasuna win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.93%) and 2-0 (6.75%). The likeliest Rayo Vallecano win was 0-1 (10.81%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.09%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.1% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Osasuna | Draw | Rayo Vallecano | 
| 37.02% (  0.27) | 27.76% (  0.2) | 35.22% (  -0.47) | 
| Both teams to score 48.5% (  -0.62) | 
| Goals | 
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 
| 42.63% (  -0.77) | 57.37% (  0.76) | 
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 | 
| 21.81% (  -0.61) | 78.19% (  0.61) | 
| Osasuna Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 70.21% (  -0.21) | 29.79% (  0.21) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34.13% (  -0.25) | 65.87% (  0.26) | 
| Rayo Vallecano Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 69.08% (  -0.68) | 30.92% (  0.68) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 32.79% (  -0.81) | 67.21% (  0.8) | 
| Score Analysis | 
| Osasuna | Draw | Rayo Vallecano | 
| 1-0 @ 11.15% (  0.26) 2-1 @ 7.93% (  -0.01) 2-0 @ 6.75% (  0.12) 3-1 @ 3.2% (  -0.02) 3-0 @ 2.73% (  0.03) 3-2 @ 1.88% (  -0.05) 4-1 @ 0.97% (  -0.01) Other @ 2.41% Total : 37.02% | 1-1 @ 13.09% (  0.06) 0-0 @ 9.21% (  0.27) 2-2 @ 4.65% (  -0.09) Other @ 0.8% Total : 27.76% | 0-1 @ 10.81% (  0.11) 1-2 @ 7.68% (  -0.11) 0-2 @ 6.35% (  -0.05) 1-3 @ 3.01% (  -0.1) 0-3 @ 2.48% (  -0.07) 2-3 @ 1.82% (  -0.07) Other @ 3.07% Total : 35.22% |