Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Girona win with a probability of 60.87%. A draw had a probability of 20.8% and a win for Espanyol had a probability of 18.35%.
The most likely scoreline for a Girona win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.61%) and 1-0 (9.36%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.69%), while for a Espanyol win it was 1-2 (5.01%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Girona would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Girona | Draw | Espanyol | 
| 60.87% (  0.53) | 20.78% (  -0.12) | 18.35% (  -0.4) | 
| Both teams to score 56.19% (  -0.36) | 
| Goals | 
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 
| 59.62% (  -0.1) | 40.38% (  0.11) | 
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 | 
| 37.24% (  -0.11) | 62.75% (  0.11) | 
| Girona Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 87.17% (  0.12) | 12.83% (  -0.12) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 60.82% (  0.24) | 39.17% (  -0.24) | 
| Espanyol Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 64.46% (  -0.5) | 35.54% (  0.5) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 27.69% (  -0.52) | 72.3% (  0.52) | 
| Score Analysis | 
| Girona | Draw | Espanyol | 
| 2-1 @ 9.95% (  0) 2-0 @ 9.61% (  0.13) 1-0 @ 9.36% (  0.09) 3-1 @ 6.81% (  0.03) 3-0 @ 6.58% (  0.12) 3-2 @ 3.52% (  -0.03) 4-1 @ 3.49% (  0.03) 4-0 @ 3.38% (  0.08) 4-2 @ 1.81% (  -0.01) 5-1 @ 1.44% (  0.02) 5-0 @ 1.39% (  0.04) Other @ 3.54% Total : 60.87% | 1-1 @ 9.69% (  -0.04) 2-2 @ 5.15% (  -0.07) 0-0 @ 4.56% (  0.02) 3-3 @ 1.21% (  -0.03) Other @ 0.18% Total : 20.78% | 1-2 @ 5.01% (  -0.09) 0-1 @ 4.72% (  -0.04) 0-2 @ 2.44% (  -0.06) 2-3 @ 1.77% (  -0.05) 1-3 @ 1.73% (  -0.05) Other @ 2.68% Total : 18.35% |