Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletic Bilbao win with a probability of 60%. A draw had a probability of 23.2% and a win for Espanyol had a probability of 16.79%.
The most likely scoreline for an Athletic Bilbao win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.96%) and 2-1 (9.56%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.93%), while for a Espanyol win it was 0-1 (6.25%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Athletic Bilbao would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Athletic Bilbao | Draw | Espanyol | 
| 60% (  -0.06) | 23.21% (  0.01) | 16.79% (  0.05) | 
| Both teams to score 45.48% (  0.09) | 
| Goals | 
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 
| 46.89% (  0.06) | 53.11% (  -0.06) | 
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 | 
| 25.31% (  0.05) | 74.69% (  -0.05) | 
| Athletic Bilbao Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 82.62% (  0) | 17.37% (  -0) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 52.21% (  0.01) | 47.78% (  -0) | 
| Espanyol Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 55.05% (  0.11) | 44.95% (  -0.11) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 19.11% (  0.09) | 80.89% (  -0.09) | 
| Score Analysis | 
| Athletic Bilbao | Draw | Espanyol | 
| 1-0 @ 13.66% (  -0.04) 2-0 @ 11.96% (  -0.02) 2-1 @ 9.56% (  0.01) 3-0 @ 6.98% (  -0.02) 3-1 @ 5.58% (  0) 4-0 @ 3.05% (  -0.01) 4-1 @ 2.44% (  0) 3-2 @ 2.23% (  0.01) 5-0 @ 1.07% (  -0) 4-2 @ 0.98% (  0) Other @ 2.48% Total : 59.99% | 1-1 @ 10.93% (  0.01) 0-0 @ 7.81% (  -0.02) 2-2 @ 3.82% (  0.01) Other @ 0.65% Total : 23.21% | 0-1 @ 6.25% (  0) 1-2 @ 4.37% (  0.02) 0-2 @ 2.5% (  0.01) 1-3 @ 1.17% (  0.01) 2-3 @ 1.02% (  0.01) Other @ 1.49% Total : 16.79% | 

| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Barcelona | 38 | 28 | 4 | 6 | 102 | 39 | 63 | 88 | 
| 2 | Real Madrid | 38 | 26 | 6 | 6 | 78 | 38 | 40 | 84 | 
| 3 | Atletico MadridAtletico | 38 | 22 | 10 | 6 | 68 | 30 | 38 | 76 | 
| 4 | Athletic Bilbao | 38 | 19 | 13 | 6 | 54 | 29 | 25 | 70 | 
| 5 | Villarreal | 38 | 20 | 10 | 8 | 71 | 51 | 20 | 70 | 
| 6 | Real BetisBetis | 38 | 16 | 12 | 10 | 57 | 50 | 7 | 60 | 
| 7 | Celta Vigo | 38 | 16 | 7 | 15 | 59 | 57 | 2 | 55 | 
| 8 | Osasuna | 38 | 12 | 16 | 10 | 48 | 52 | -4 | 52 | 
| 9 | Rayo Vallecano | 38 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 41 | 45 | -4 | 52 | 
| 10 | Mallorca | 38 | 13 | 9 | 16 | 35 | 44 | -9 | 48 | 
| 11 | Valencia | 38 | 11 | 13 | 14 | 44 | 54 | -10 | 46 | 
| 12 | Real Sociedad | 38 | 13 | 7 | 18 | 35 | 46 | -11 | 46 | 
| 13 | Getafe | 38 | 11 | 9 | 18 | 34 | 39 | -5 | 42 | 
| 14 | AlavesAlaves | 38 | 10 | 12 | 16 | 38 | 48 | -10 | 42 | 
| 15 | Espanyol | 38 | 11 | 9 | 18 | 40 | 51 | -11 | 42 | 
| 16 | Sevilla | 38 | 10 | 11 | 17 | 42 | 55 | -13 | 41 | 
| 17 | GironaGirona | 38 | 11 | 8 | 19 | 44 | 60 | -16 | 41 | 
| 18 | Leganes | 38 | 9 | 13 | 16 | 39 | 56 | -17 | 40 | 
| R | Las PalmasLas Palmas | 38 | 8 | 8 | 22 | 40 | 61 | -21 | 32 | 
| R | Real ValladolidValladolid | 38 | 4 | 4 | 30 | 26 | 90 | -64 | 16 | 
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