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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sunderland win with a probability of 61.33%. A draw had a probability of 21.4% and a win for Watford had a probability of 17.31%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sunderland win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.62%) and 2-1 (9.93%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.12%), while for a Watford win it was 0-1 (5.16%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Sunderland | Draw | Watford |
| 61.33% ( | 21.35% ( | 17.31% |
| Both teams to score 52.17% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.3% ( | 44.69% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 32.94% ( | 67.05% ( |
| Sunderland Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.93% ( | 14.06% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 58.34% ( | 41.65% ( |
| Watford Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 60.71% ( | 39.28% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 24.01% ( | 75.99% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Sunderland | Draw | Watford |
| 1-0 @ 10.83% ( 2-0 @ 10.62% ( 2-1 @ 9.93% 3-0 @ 6.95% 3-1 @ 6.49% 4-0 @ 3.41% 4-1 @ 3.18% ( 3-2 @ 3.03% ( 4-2 @ 1.49% ( 5-0 @ 1.34% 5-1 @ 1.25% Other @ 2.79% Total : 61.31% | 1-1 @ 10.12% 0-0 @ 5.53% ( 2-2 @ 4.64% ( 3-3 @ 0.95% ( Other @ 0.12% Total : 21.35% | 0-1 @ 5.16% ( 1-2 @ 4.73% ( 0-2 @ 2.41% 1-3 @ 1.47% 2-3 @ 1.45% ( Other @ 2.09% Total : 17.31% |

| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Leeds UnitedLeeds | 46 | 29 | 13 | 4 | 95 | 30 | 65 | 100 |
| P | Burnley | 46 | 28 | 16 | 2 | 69 | 16 | 53 | 100 |
| 3 | Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd | 46 | 28 | 8 | 10 | 63 | 36 | 27 | 90 |
| P | Sunderland | 46 | 21 | 13 | 12 | 58 | 44 | 14 | 76 |
| 5 | Coventry CityCoventry | 46 | 20 | 9 | 17 | 64 | 58 | 6 | 69 |
| 6 | Bristol City | 46 | 17 | 17 | 12 | 59 | 55 | 4 | 68 |
| 7 | Blackburn RoversBlackburn | 46 | 19 | 9 | 18 | 53 | 48 | 5 | 66 |
| 8 | Millwall | 46 | 18 | 12 | 16 | 47 | 49 | -2 | 66 |
| 9 | West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom | 46 | 15 | 19 | 12 | 57 | 47 | 10 | 64 |
| 10 | Middlesbrough | 46 | 18 | 10 | 18 | 64 | 56 | 8 | 64 |
| 11 | Swansea CitySwansea | 46 | 17 | 10 | 19 | 51 | 56 | -5 | 61 |
| 12 | Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds | 46 | 15 | 13 | 18 | 60 | 69 | -9 | 58 |
| 13 | Norwich CityNorwich | 46 | 14 | 15 | 17 | 71 | 68 | 3 | 57 |
| 14 | Watford | 46 | 16 | 9 | 21 | 53 | 61 | -8 | 57 |
| 15 | Queens Park RangersQPR | 46 | 14 | 14 | 18 | 53 | 63 | -10 | 56 |
| 16 | Portsmouth | 46 | 14 | 12 | 20 | 58 | 71 | -13 | 54 |
| 17 | Oxford UnitedOxford Utd | 46 | 13 | 14 | 19 | 49 | 65 | -16 | 53 |
| 18 | Stoke CityStoke | 46 | 12 | 15 | 19 | 45 | 62 | -17 | 51 |
| 19 | Derby CountyDerby | 46 | 13 | 11 | 22 | 48 | 56 | -8 | 50 |
| 20 | Preston North EndPreston | 46 | 10 | 20 | 16 | 48 | 59 | -11 | 50 |
| 21 | Hull City | 46 | 12 | 13 | 21 | 44 | 54 | -10 | 49 |
| R | Luton TownLuton | 46 | 13 | 10 | 23 | 45 | 69 | -24 | 49 |
| R | Plymouth ArgylePlymouth | 46 | 11 | 13 | 22 | 51 | 88 | -37 | 46 |
| R | Cardiff CityCardiff | 46 | 9 | 17 | 20 | 48 | 73 | -25 | 44 |
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