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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Holstein Kiel win with a probability of 45.67%. A win for Hoffenheim had a probability of 31.63% and a draw had a probability of 22.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Holstein Kiel win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.7%) and 2-0 (6.09%). The likeliest Hoffenheim win was 1-2 (7.37%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.93%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Hoffenheim would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Holstein Kiel | Draw | Hoffenheim | 
| 45.67% (  -0.04) | 22.7% (  0.22) | 31.63% (  -0.18) | 
| Both teams to score 64.76% (  -0.92) | 
| Goals | 
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 
| 64.09% (  -1.16) | 35.91% (  1.16) | 
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 | 
| 42% (  -1.29) | 58% (  1.29) | 
| Holstein Kiel Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 83.76% (  -0.46) | 16.23% (  0.46) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 54.25% (  -0.85) | 45.75% (  0.84) | 
| Hoffenheim Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 77.31% (  -0.66) | 22.68% (  0.66) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 43.67% (  -0.99) | 56.33% (  0.99) | 
| Score Analysis | 
| Holstein Kiel | Draw | Hoffenheim | 
| 2-1 @ 9.03% (  0.06) 1-0 @ 6.7% (  0.28) 2-0 @ 6.09% (  0.16) 3-1 @ 5.47% (  -0.05) 3-2 @ 4.06% (  -0.12) 3-0 @ 3.69% (  0.04) 4-1 @ 2.49% (  -0.06) 4-2 @ 1.85% (  -0.08) 4-0 @ 1.68% (  -0.01) 4-3 @ 0.91% (  -0.06) 5-1 @ 0.9% (  -0.04) Other @ 2.82% Total : 45.67% | 1-1 @ 9.93% (  0.23) 2-2 @ 6.7% (  -0.09) 0-0 @ 3.68% (  0.21) 3-3 @ 2.01% (  -0.1) Other @ 0.38% Total : 22.7% | 1-2 @ 7.37% (  0.02) 0-1 @ 5.46% (  0.21) 0-2 @ 4.05% (  0.08) 1-3 @ 3.64% (  -0.06) 2-3 @ 3.31% (  -0.11) 0-3 @ 2% (  -0) 1-4 @ 1.35% (  -0.05) 2-4 @ 1.23% (  -0.07) Other @ 3.21% Total : 31.64% | 

| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Bayern MunichBayern | 34 | 25 | 7 | 2 | 99 | 32 | 67 | 82 | 
| 2 | Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen | 34 | 19 | 12 | 3 | 72 | 43 | 29 | 69 | 
| 3 | Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt | 34 | 17 | 9 | 8 | 68 | 46 | 22 | 60 | 
| 4 | Borussia DortmundDortmund | 34 | 17 | 6 | 11 | 71 | 51 | 20 | 57 | 
| 5 | Freiburg | 34 | 16 | 7 | 11 | 49 | 53 | -4 | 55 | 
| 6 | Mainz 05Mainz | 34 | 14 | 10 | 10 | 55 | 43 | 12 | 52 | 
| 7 | RB Leipzig | 34 | 13 | 12 | 9 | 53 | 48 | 5 | 51 | 
| 8 | Werder Bremen | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 54 | 57 | -3 | 51 | 
| 9 | Stuttgart | 34 | 14 | 8 | 12 | 64 | 53 | 11 | 50 | 
| 10 | Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach | 34 | 13 | 6 | 15 | 55 | 57 | -2 | 45 | 
| 11 | Wolfsburg | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 56 | 54 | 2 | 43 | 
| 12 | Augsburg | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 35 | 51 | -16 | 43 | 
| 13 | Union BerlinUnion Berlin | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 35 | 51 | -16 | 40 | 
| 14 | St Pauli | 34 | 8 | 8 | 18 | 28 | 41 | -13 | 32 | 
| 15 | Hoffenheim | 34 | 7 | 11 | 16 | 46 | 68 | -22 | 32 | 
| 16 | Heidenheim | 34 | 8 | 5 | 21 | 37 | 64 | -27 | 29 | 
| R | Holstein Kiel | 34 | 6 | 7 | 21 | 49 | 80 | -31 | 25 | 
| R | VfL BochumVfL Bochum | 34 | 6 | 7 | 21 | 33 | 67 | -34 | 25 | 
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