

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Freiburg win with a probability of 51.12%. A win for Heidenheim had a probability of 25.35% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Freiburg win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.47%) and 2-0 (8.3%). The likeliest Heidenheim win was 1-2 (6.43%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.03%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Freiburg would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Freiburg | Draw | Heidenheim |
| 51.12% ( | 23.53% ( | 25.35% ( |
| Both teams to score 56.91% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.84% ( | 44.16% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.46% ( | 66.54% ( |
| Freiburg Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.67% ( | 17.33% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 52.3% ( | 47.7% ( |
| Heidenheim Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.84% ( | 31.16% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 32.51% ( | 67.5% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Freiburg | Draw | Heidenheim |
| 2-1 @ 9.67% ( 1-0 @ 9.47% ( 2-0 @ 8.3% ( 3-1 @ 5.65% ( 3-0 @ 4.85% ( 3-2 @ 3.3% ( 4-1 @ 2.48% ( 4-0 @ 2.12% ( 4-2 @ 1.44% ( Other @ 3.85% Total : 51.12% | 1-1 @ 11.03% ( 2-2 @ 5.64% ( 0-0 @ 5.4% ( 3-3 @ 1.28% ( Other @ 0.18% Total : 23.53% | 1-2 @ 6.43% ( 0-1 @ 6.3% ( 0-2 @ 3.67% ( 1-3 @ 2.5% ( 2-3 @ 2.19% ( 0-3 @ 1.43% ( Other @ 2.83% Total : 25.35% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Bayern MunichBayern | 34 | 25 | 7 | 2 | 99 | 32 | 67 | 82 |
| 2 | Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen | 34 | 19 | 12 | 3 | 72 | 43 | 29 | 69 |
| 3 | Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt | 34 | 17 | 9 | 8 | 68 | 46 | 22 | 60 |
| 4 | Borussia DortmundDortmund | 34 | 17 | 6 | 11 | 71 | 51 | 20 | 57 |
| 5 | Freiburg | 34 | 16 | 7 | 11 | 49 | 53 | -4 | 55 |
| 6 | Mainz 05Mainz | 34 | 14 | 10 | 10 | 55 | 43 | 12 | 52 |
| 7 | RB Leipzig | 34 | 13 | 12 | 9 | 53 | 48 | 5 | 51 |
| 8 | Werder Bremen | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 54 | 57 | -3 | 51 |
| 9 | Stuttgart | 34 | 14 | 8 | 12 | 64 | 53 | 11 | 50 |
| 10 | Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach | 34 | 13 | 6 | 15 | 55 | 57 | -2 | 45 |
| 11 | Wolfsburg | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 56 | 54 | 2 | 43 |
| 12 | Augsburg | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 35 | 51 | -16 | 43 |
| 13 | Union BerlinUnion Berlin | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 35 | 51 | -16 | 40 |
| 14 | St Pauli | 34 | 8 | 8 | 18 | 28 | 41 | -13 | 32 |
| 15 | Hoffenheim | 34 | 7 | 11 | 16 | 46 | 68 | -22 | 32 |
| 16 | Heidenheim | 34 | 8 | 5 | 21 | 37 | 64 | -27 | 29 |
| R | Holstein Kiel | 34 | 6 | 7 | 21 | 49 | 80 | -31 | 25 |
| R | VfL BochumVfL Bochum | 34 | 6 | 7 | 21 | 33 | 67 | -34 | 25 |
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