Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mainz 05 win with a probability of 40.91%. A win for Augsburg had a probability of 32.5% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Mainz 05 win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.61%) and 0-2 (7.27%). The likeliest Augsburg win was 1-0 (9.29%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.64%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Mainz 05 would win this match.