Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newell's Old Boys win with a probability of 43.79%. A win for Defensa y Justicia had a probability of 29.23% and a draw had a probability of 27%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newell's Old Boys win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.77%) and 2-0 (8.2%). The likeliest Defensa y Justicia win was 0-1 (9.3%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.76%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Newell's Old Boys in this match.
