Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bologna win with a probability of 44%. A win for Lecce had a probability of 29.71% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bologna win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.94%) and 2-0 (7.94%). The likeliest Lecce win was 0-1 (8.74%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.49%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bologna would win this match.