Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bologna win with a probability of 49.36%. A win for Lecce had a probability of 26.16% and a draw had a probability of 24.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bologna win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.53%) and 2-0 (8.44%). The likeliest Lecce win was 0-1 (7.05%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.59%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Bologna would win this match.
