Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 44.35%. A win for Sporting Lisbon had a probability of 30.99% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.03%) and 2-0 (7.14%). The likeliest Sporting Lisbon win was 1-2 (7.42%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.57%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-2 draw for this match.
Result | ||
Porto | Draw | Sporting Lisbon |
44.35% | 24.65% | 30.99% |
Both teams to score 57.37% |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
54.53% | 45.48% |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
32.19% | 67.81% |
Porto Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
79.41% | 20.59% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
46.87% | 53.13% |
Sporting Lisbon Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
72.25% | 27.75% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
36.68% | 63.33% |
Score Analysis |
Porto | Draw | Sporting Lisbon |
2-1 @ 9.15% 1-0 @ 9.03% 2-0 @ 7.14% 3-1 @ 4.82% 3-0 @ 3.76% 3-2 @ 3.09% 4-1 @ 1.9% 4-0 @ 1.49% 4-2 @ 1.22% Other @ 2.77% Total : 44.35% | 1-1 @ 11.57% 2-2 @ 5.86% 0-0 @ 5.71% 3-3 @ 1.32% Other @ 0.18% Total : 24.65% | 1-2 @ 7.42% 0-1 @ 7.33% 0-2 @ 4.7% 1-3 @ 3.17% 2-3 @ 2.51% 0-3 @ 2.01% 1-4 @ 1.02% Other @ 2.86% Total : 30.99% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Benfica | 20 | 17 | 2 | 1 | 51 | 12 | 39 | 53 |
2 | Porto | 19 | 14 | 3 | 2 | 45 | 11 | 34 | 45 |
3 | Braga | 19 | 14 | 1 | 4 | 43 | 19 | 24 | 43 |
4 | Sporting Lisbon | 19 | 12 | 2 | 5 | 39 | 19 | 20 | 38 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 20 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 19 | 20 | -1 | 33 |
6 | Casa Pia | 19 | 9 | 3 | 7 | 18 | 20 | -2 | 30 |
7 | AroucaArouca | 20 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 24 | 29 | -5 | 30 |
8 | ChavesChaves | 20 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 19 | 24 | -5 | 26 |
9 | Vizela | 20 | 7 | 4 | 9 | 22 | 20 | 2 | 25 |
10 | BoavistaBoavista | 19 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 23 | 31 | -8 | 25 |
11 | PortimonensePortimonense | 20 | 7 | 2 | 11 | 16 | 26 | -10 | 23 |
12 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 19 | 6 | 4 | 9 | 18 | 24 | -6 | 22 |
13 | Gil Vicente | 20 | 6 | 4 | 10 | 20 | 27 | -7 | 22 |
14 | Rio AveRio Ave | 19 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 18 | 24 | -6 | 21 |
15 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 20 | 6 | 3 | 11 | 18 | 28 | -10 | 21 |
16 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 20 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 14 | 26 | -12 | 15 |
17 | Maritimo | 19 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 12 | 35 | -23 | 13 |
18 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 20 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 12 | 36 | -24 | 9 |
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