Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Luxembourg win with a probability of 41.25%. A win for Lithuania had a probability of 37.33% and a draw had a probability of 21.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Luxembourg win was 1-2 with a probability of 7.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-3 (5.1%) and 2-3 (4.66%). The likeliest Lithuania win was 2-1 (7.54%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.25%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 4.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Luxembourg would win this match.