Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bulgaria win with a probability of 39.5%. A win for Lithuania had a probability of 32.98% and a draw had a probability of 27.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bulgaria win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.27%) and 0-2 (7.27%). The likeliest Lithuania win was 1-0 (10.22%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood.