Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Luxembourg win with a probability of 38.83%. A win for Azerbaijan had a probability of 36.4% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Luxembourg win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.13%) and 0-2 (6%). The likeliest Azerbaijan win was 2-1 (8.23%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.56%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Luxembourg would win this match.