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| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 8 | Sporting Kansas City | 13 | -8 | 12 |
| 9 | Chicago Fire | 12 | -5 | 11 |
| 10 | Toronto | 12 | -7 | 11 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Philadelphia Union | 12 | 7 | 21 |
| 2 | New York Red Bulls | 12 | 6 | 20 |
| 3 | CF Montreal | 12 | 4 | 20 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York Red Bulls win with a probability of 38.16%. A win for Toronto had a probability of 36.25% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York Red Bulls win was 0-1 with a probability of 8.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.43%) and 0-2 (6.25%). The likeliest Toronto win was 1-0 (8.71%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.11%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 1.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that New York Red Bulls would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Toronto | Draw | New York Red Bulls |
| 36.25% | 25.59% | 38.16% |
| Both teams to score 55.63% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 51.62% | 48.37% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 29.48% | 70.51% |
| Toronto Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.06% | 25.94% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 39.05% | 60.94% |
| New York Red Bulls Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.12% | 24.88% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 40.51% | 59.49% |
| Score Analysis |
| Toronto | Draw | New York Red Bulls |
| 1-0 @ 8.71% 2-1 @ 8.17% 2-0 @ 5.88% 3-1 @ 3.68% 3-0 @ 2.64% 3-2 @ 2.56% 4-1 @ 1.24% Other @ 3.37% Total : 36.25% | 1-1 @ 12.11% 0-0 @ 6.45% 2-2 @ 5.69% 3-3 @ 1.19% Other @ 0.15% Total : 25.59% | 0-1 @ 8.98% 1-2 @ 8.43% 0-2 @ 6.25% 1-3 @ 3.91% 0-3 @ 2.9% 2-3 @ 2.64% 1-4 @ 1.36% 0-4 @ 1.01% 2-4 @ 0.92% Other @ 1.79% Total : 38.16% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | FC CincinnatiCincinnati | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 18 | 12 | 6 | 27 |
| 2 | New England RevolutionNew England | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 19 | 11 | 8 | 24 |
| 3 | Nashville SCNashville | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 17 | 8 | 9 | 22 |
| 4 | Atlanta UnitedAtlanta | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 25 | 21 | 4 | 21 |
| 5 | Columbus Crew | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 23 | 14 | 9 | 18 |
| 6 | Philadelphia UnionPhiladelphia | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 14 | 3 | 18 |
| 7 | Charlotte FCCharlotte FC | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 18 | 23 | -5 | 18 |
| 8 | DC United | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 16 | 16 | 0 | 16 |
| 9 | New York City FCNY City | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 15 | 16 | -1 | 16 |
| 10 | Orlando City | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 15 | -2 | 16 |
| 11 | Inter MiamiInter Miami | 12 | 5 | 0 | 7 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 15 |
| 12 | CF MontrealMontreal | 12 | 5 | 0 | 7 | 11 | 20 | -9 | 15 |
| 13 | Chicago Fire | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 15 | 18 | -3 | 14 |
| 14 | New York Red BullsNY Red Bulls | 13 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 13 |
| 15 | Toronto | 13 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 13 |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Seattle SoundersSeattle | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 20 | 11 | 9 | 23 |
| 2 | Los Angeles FCLos Angeles | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 21 | 9 | 12 | 22 |
| 3 | Dallas | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 12 | 3 | 22 |
| 4 | St Louis City | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 22 | 13 | 9 | 20 |
| 5 | San Jose EarthquakesEarthquakes | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 16 | 16 | 0 | 18 |
| 6 | Portland TimbersPortland | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 18 | 19 | -1 | 16 |
| 7 | Minnesota UnitedMinnesota Utd | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 15 |
| 8 | Vancouver WhitecapsVancouver | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 16 | 14 | 2 | 14 |
| 9 | Houston DynamoHouston | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 14 |
| 10 | Austin FCAustin | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 12 | 18 | -6 | 13 |
| 11 | Colorado RapidsColorado | 13 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 10 | 18 | -8 | 12 |
| 12 | Real Salt LakeSalt Lake | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 20 | -10 | 12 |
| 13 | Sporting Kansas CityKansas | 13 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 9 | 17 | -8 | 10 |
| 14 | Los Angeles GalaxyLA Galaxy | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 20 | -10 | 9 |
