Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a San Jose Earthquakes win with a probability of 42.38%. A win for DC United had a probability of 34.09% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a San Jose Earthquakes win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.16%) and 2-0 (5.98%). The likeliest DC United win was 1-2 (7.83%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.58%). The actual scoreline of 6-1 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that San Jose Earthquakes would win this match.