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| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Dallas | 28 | 7 | 42 |
| 2 | Minnesota United | 26 | 6 | 41 |
| 3 | Real Salt Lake | 26 | -1 | 38 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 7 | Chicago Fire | 26 | -8 | 30 |
| 8 | Houston Dynamo | 26 | -11 | 26 |
| 9 | Sporting Kansas City | 27 | -15 | 26 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Minnesota United win with a probability of 55.32%. A draw had a probability of 22.9% and a win for Houston Dynamo had a probability of 21.74%.
The most likely scoreline for a Minnesota United win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.86%) and 2-0 (9.37%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.83%), while for a Houston Dynamo win it was 0-1 (5.96%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Minnesota United would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Minnesota United | Draw | Houston Dynamo |
| 55.32% ( | 22.94% ( | 21.74% ( |
| Both teams to score 54.54% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 54.74% ( | 45.26% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 32.4% ( | 67.6% ( |
| Minnesota United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.78% ( | 16.22% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 54.28% ( | 45.72% ( |
| Houston Dynamo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.1% ( | 34.91% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 28.35% ( | 71.65% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Minnesota United | Draw | Houston Dynamo |
| 1-0 @ 10.29% ( 2-1 @ 9.86% ( 2-0 @ 9.37% ( 3-1 @ 5.98% ( 3-0 @ 5.68% ( 3-2 @ 3.15% ( 4-1 @ 2.72% ( 4-0 @ 2.58% ( 4-2 @ 1.43% ( 5-1 @ 0.99% ( 5-0 @ 0.94% ( Other @ 2.34% Total : 55.31% | 1-1 @ 10.83% ( 0-0 @ 5.66% ( 2-2 @ 5.19% ( 3-3 @ 1.1% ( Other @ 0.14% Total : 22.93% | 0-1 @ 5.96% ( 1-2 @ 5.7% ( 0-2 @ 3.14% ( 1-3 @ 2% ( 2-3 @ 1.82% ( 0-3 @ 1.1% ( Other @ 2.02% Total : 21.74% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | FC CincinnatiCincinnati | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 18 | 12 | 6 | 27 |
| 2 | New England RevolutionNew England | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 19 | 11 | 8 | 24 |
| 3 | Nashville SCNashville | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 17 | 8 | 9 | 22 |
| 4 | Atlanta UnitedAtlanta | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 25 | 21 | 4 | 21 |
| 5 | Columbus Crew | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 23 | 14 | 9 | 18 |
| 6 | Philadelphia UnionPhiladelphia | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 14 | 3 | 18 |
| 7 | Charlotte FCCharlotte FC | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 18 | 23 | -5 | 18 |
| 8 | DC United | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 16 | 16 | 0 | 16 |
| 9 | New York City FCNY City | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 15 | 16 | -1 | 16 |
| 10 | Orlando City | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 15 | -2 | 16 |
| 11 | Inter MiamiInter Miami | 12 | 5 | 0 | 7 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 15 |
| 12 | CF MontrealMontreal | 12 | 5 | 0 | 7 | 11 | 20 | -9 | 15 |
| 13 | Chicago Fire | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 15 | 18 | -3 | 14 |
| 14 | New York Red BullsNY Red Bulls | 13 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 13 |
| 15 | Toronto | 13 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 13 |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Seattle SoundersSeattle | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 20 | 11 | 9 | 23 |
| 2 | Los Angeles FCLos Angeles | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 21 | 9 | 12 | 22 |
| 3 | Dallas | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 12 | 3 | 22 |
| 4 | St Louis City | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 22 | 13 | 9 | 20 |
| 5 | San Jose EarthquakesEarthquakes | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 16 | 16 | 0 | 18 |
| 6 | Portland TimbersPortland | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 18 | 19 | -1 | 16 |
| 7 | Minnesota UnitedMinnesota Utd | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 15 |
| 8 | Vancouver WhitecapsVancouver | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 16 | 14 | 2 | 14 |
| 9 | Houston DynamoHouston | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 14 |
| 10 | Austin FCAustin | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 12 | 18 | -6 | 13 |
| 11 | Colorado RapidsColorado | 13 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 10 | 18 | -8 | 12 |
| 12 | Real Salt LakeSalt Lake | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 20 | -10 | 12 |
| 13 | Sporting Kansas CityKansas | 13 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 9 | 17 | -8 | 10 |
| 14 | Los Angeles GalaxyLA Galaxy | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 20 | -10 | 9 |
