| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Dallas | 27 | 11 | 42 |
| 2 | Minnesota United | 25 | 5 | 38 |
| 3 | Real Salt Lake | 25 | -1 | 37 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Los Angeles FC | 25 | 30 | 57 |
| 2 | Austin FC | 25 | 20 | 48 |
| 3 | Dallas | 27 | 11 | 42 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Minnesota United win with a probability of 51.36%. A win for Austin FC had a probability of 24.83% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Minnesota United win was 1-0 with a probability of 10%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.68%) and 2-0 (8.61%). The likeliest Austin FC win was 0-1 (6.53%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.24%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Minnesota United in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Minnesota United.
| Result | ||
| Minnesota United | Draw | Austin FC |
| 51.36% ( | 23.81% ( | 24.83% ( |
| Both teams to score 55.45% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 54.15% ( | 45.85% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 31.84% ( | 68.16% ( |
| Minnesota United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.13% ( | 17.87% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 51.36% ( | 48.65% ( |
| Austin FC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.51% ( | 32.49% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 30.99% ( | 69.01% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Minnesota United | Draw | Austin FC |
| 1-0 @ 10% ( 2-1 @ 9.68% ( 2-0 @ 8.61% ( 3-1 @ 5.56% ( 3-0 @ 4.94% ( 3-2 @ 3.12% ( 4-1 @ 2.39% ( 4-0 @ 2.13% ( 4-2 @ 1.34% ( Other @ 3.59% Total : 51.36% | 1-1 @ 11.24% ( 0-0 @ 5.81% ( 2-2 @ 5.44% ( 3-3 @ 1.17% ( Other @ 0.15% Total : 23.81% | 0-1 @ 6.53% ( 1-2 @ 6.32% ( 0-2 @ 3.67% ( 1-3 @ 2.37% ( 2-3 @ 2.04% ( 0-3 @ 1.38% ( Other @ 2.53% Total : 24.83% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Philadelphia UnionPhiladelphia | 32 | 18 | 10 | 4 | 68 | 22 | 46 | 64 |
| 2 | CF MontrealMontreal | 32 | 18 | 5 | 9 | 59 | 49 | 10 | 59 |
| 3 | New York Red BullsNY Red Bulls | 32 | 14 | 8 | 10 | 47 | 39 | 8 | 50 |
| 4 | New York City FCNY City | 32 | 14 | 7 | 11 | 53 | 39 | 14 | 49 |
| 5 | FC CincinnatiCincinnati | 31 | 11 | 12 | 8 | 56 | 50 | 6 | 45 |
| 6 | Orlando City | 31 | 13 | 6 | 12 | 40 | 46 | -6 | 45 |
| 7 | Columbus Crew | 31 | 9 | 15 | 7 | 41 | 36 | 5 | 42 |
| 8 | Inter MiamiInter Miami | 31 | 12 | 6 | 13 | 41 | 52 | -11 | 42 |
| 9 | Atlanta UnitedAtlanta | 32 | 10 | 10 | 12 | 46 | 50 | -4 | 40 |
| 10 | New England RevolutionNew England | 32 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 44 | 48 | -4 | 38 |
| 11 | Charlotte FCCharlotte FC | 31 | 12 | 2 | 17 | 38 | 48 | -10 | 38 |
| 12 | Chicago Fire | 32 | 9 | 8 | 15 | 35 | 45 | -10 | 35 |
| 13 | Toronto | 32 | 9 | 7 | 16 | 49 | 61 | -12 | 34 |
| 14 | DC United | 32 | 7 | 6 | 19 | 34 | 65 | -31 | 27 |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Philadelphia UnionPhiladelphia | 32 | 18 | 10 | 4 | 68 | 22 | 46 | 64 |
| 2 | CF MontrealMontreal | 32 | 18 | 5 | 9 | 59 | 49 | 10 | 59 |
| 3 | New York Red BullsNY Red Bulls | 32 | 14 | 8 | 10 | 47 | 39 | 8 | 50 |
| 4 | New York City FCNY City | 32 | 14 | 7 | 11 | 53 | 39 | 14 | 49 |
| 5 | FC CincinnatiCincinnati | 31 | 11 | 12 | 8 | 56 | 50 | 6 | 45 |
| 6 | Orlando City | 31 | 13 | 6 | 12 | 40 | 46 | -6 | 45 |
| 7 | Columbus Crew | 31 | 9 | 15 | 7 | 41 | 36 | 5 | 42 |
| 8 | Inter MiamiInter Miami | 31 | 12 | 6 | 13 | 41 | 52 | -11 | 42 |
| 9 | Atlanta UnitedAtlanta | 32 | 10 | 10 | 12 | 46 | 50 | -4 | 40 |
| 10 | New England RevolutionNew England | 32 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 44 | 48 | -4 | 38 |
| 11 | Charlotte FCCharlotte FC | 31 | 12 | 2 | 17 | 38 | 48 | -10 | 38 |
| 12 | Chicago Fire | 32 | 9 | 8 | 15 | 35 | 45 | -10 | 35 |
| 13 | Toronto | 32 | 9 | 7 | 16 | 49 | 61 | -12 | 34 |
| 14 | DC United | 32 | 7 | 6 | 19 | 34 | 65 | -31 | 27 |
