

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gillingham win with a probability of 43.61%. A win for Newport County had a probability of 30.94% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gillingham win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.03%) and 2-0 (7.4%). The likeliest Newport County win was 0-1 (8.07%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.07%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 4.9% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Gillingham | Draw | Newport County |
| 43.61% ( | 25.45% ( | 30.94% ( |
| Both teams to score 54.68% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 51.02% ( | 48.98% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 28.93% ( | 71.06% ( |
| Gillingham Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.59% ( | 22.4% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 44.08% ( | 55.91% ( |
| Newport County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.46% ( | 29.54% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 34.44% ( | 65.55% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Gillingham | Draw | Newport County |
| 1-0 @ 9.9% ( 2-1 @ 9.03% ( 2-0 @ 7.4% ( 3-1 @ 4.5% ( 3-0 @ 3.69% ( 3-2 @ 2.75% ( 4-1 @ 1.68% ( 4-0 @ 1.38% ( 4-2 @ 1.03% ( Other @ 2.24% Total : 43.61% | 1-1 @ 12.07% ( 0-0 @ 6.62% ( 2-2 @ 5.51% ( 3-3 @ 1.12% ( Other @ 0.14% Total : 25.45% | 0-1 @ 8.07% ( 1-2 @ 7.36% ( 0-2 @ 4.92% ( 1-3 @ 2.99% ( 2-3 @ 2.24% ( 0-3 @ 2% ( 1-4 @ 0.91% ( Other @ 2.45% Total : 30.94% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Walsall | 35 | 20 | 8 | 7 | 64 | 38 | 26 | 68 |
| 2 | Bradford CityBradford | 35 | 19 | 9 | 7 | 48 | 29 | 19 | 66 |
| 3 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 35 | 18 | 7 | 10 | 51 | 41 | 10 | 61 |
| 4 | Notts County | 34 | 16 | 10 | 8 | 53 | 35 | 18 | 58 |
| 5 | AFC Wimbledon | 34 | 16 | 9 | 9 | 44 | 23 | 21 | 57 |
| 6 | Port Vale | 33 | 15 | 12 | 6 | 42 | 34 | 8 | 57 |
| 7 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 35 | 14 | 13 | 8 | 43 | 36 | 7 | 55 |
| 8 | Grimsby Town | 34 | 16 | 5 | 13 | 48 | 50 | -2 | 53 |
| 9 | Bromley | 35 | 13 | 12 | 10 | 45 | 41 | 4 | 51 |
| 10 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 34 | 11 | 16 | 7 | 39 | 32 | 7 | 49 |
| 11 | Salford City | 34 | 13 | 10 | 11 | 42 | 36 | 6 | 49 |
| 12 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 35 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 48 | 42 | 6 | 48 |
| 13 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 46 | 49 | -3 | 46 |
| 14 | Swindon TownSwindon | 35 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 50 | 50 | 0 | 45 |
| 15 | Newport CountyNewport | 34 | 12 | 7 | 15 | 44 | 54 | -10 | 43 |
| 16 | Chesterfield | 33 | 11 | 9 | 13 | 50 | 42 | 8 | 42 |
| 17 | BarrowBarrow | 34 | 11 | 7 | 16 | 36 | 41 | -5 | 40 |
| 18 | MK Dons | 34 | 11 | 6 | 17 | 44 | 49 | -5 | 39 |
| 19 | Gillingham | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | 29 | 38 | -9 | 38 |
| 20 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 35 | 10 | 7 | 18 | 28 | 45 | -17 | 37 |
| 21 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 34 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 39 | 52 | -13 | 36 |
| 22 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 35 | 6 | 12 | 17 | 25 | 54 | -29 | 30 |
| 23 | Morecambe | 35 | 8 | 5 | 22 | 30 | 52 | -22 | 29 |
| 24 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 34 | 6 | 9 | 19 | 25 | 50 | -25 | 27 |
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