

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ipswich Town win with a probability of 73.72%. A draw had a probability of 16.2% and a win for Port Vale had a probability of 10.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ipswich Town win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.77%) and 3-0 (9.62%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.65%), while for a Port Vale win it was 0-1 (3.15%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ipswich Town would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Ipswich Town | Draw | Port Vale |
| 73.72% ( | 16.18% ( | 10.1% ( |
| Both teams to score 49.52% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 62.3% ( | 37.7% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 40.05% ( | 59.94% ( |
| Ipswich Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 91.2% ( | 8.8% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 69.82% ( | 30.18% ( |
| Port Vale Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 54.3% ( | 45.7% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 18.51% ( | 81.48% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Ipswich Town | Draw | Port Vale |
| 2-0 @ 11.87% 1-0 @ 9.77% ( 3-0 @ 9.62% ( 2-1 @ 9.3% ( 3-1 @ 7.54% ( 4-0 @ 5.85% ( 4-1 @ 4.58% ( 3-2 @ 2.95% 5-0 @ 2.84% ( 5-1 @ 2.23% ( 4-2 @ 1.79% ( 6-0 @ 1.15% ( 6-1 @ 0.9% ( Other @ 3.31% Total : 73.71% | 1-1 @ 7.65% ( 0-0 @ 4.02% ( 2-2 @ 3.64% ( Other @ 0.87% Total : 16.18% | 0-1 @ 3.15% ( 1-2 @ 3% ( 0-2 @ 1.23% ( 2-3 @ 0.95% ( Other @ 1.77% Total : 10.1% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Plymouth ArgylePlymouth | 46 | 31 | 8 | 7 | 82 | 47 | 35 | 101 |
| P | Ipswich TownIpswich | 46 | 28 | 14 | 4 | 101 | 35 | 66 | 98 |
| 3 | Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds | 46 | 28 | 12 | 6 | 81 | 37 | 44 | 96 |
| 4 | Barnsley | 46 | 26 | 8 | 12 | 80 | 47 | 33 | 86 |
| 5 | Bolton WanderersBolton | 46 | 23 | 12 | 11 | 62 | 36 | 26 | 81 |
| 6 | Peterborough UnitedPeterborough | 46 | 24 | 5 | 17 | 75 | 54 | 21 | 77 |
| 7 | Derby CountyDerby | 46 | 21 | 13 | 12 | 67 | 46 | 21 | 76 |
| 8 | Portsmouth | 46 | 17 | 19 | 10 | 61 | 50 | 11 | 70 |
| 9 | Wycombe WanderersWycombe | 46 | 20 | 9 | 17 | 59 | 51 | 8 | 69 |
| 10 | Charlton AthleticCharlton | 46 | 16 | 14 | 16 | 70 | 66 | 4 | 62 |
| 11 | Lincoln CityLincoln | 46 | 14 | 20 | 12 | 47 | 47 | 0 | 62 |
| 12 | Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury | 46 | 17 | 8 | 21 | 52 | 61 | -9 | 59 |
| 13 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 46 | 14 | 16 | 16 | 53 | 51 | 2 | 58 |
| 14 | Exeter CityExeter | 46 | 15 | 11 | 20 | 64 | 68 | -4 | 56 |
| 15 | Burton Albion | 46 | 15 | 11 | 20 | 57 | 79 | -22 | 56 |
| 16 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 46 | 14 | 12 | 20 | 45 | 61 | -16 | 54 |
| 17 | Bristol Rovers | 46 | 14 | 11 | 21 | 58 | 73 | -15 | 53 |
| 18 | Port Vale | 46 | 13 | 10 | 23 | 48 | 71 | -23 | 49 |
| 19 | Oxford UnitedOxford Utd | 46 | 11 | 14 | 21 | 49 | 56 | -7 | 47 |
| 20 | Cambridge UnitedCambridge | 46 | 13 | 7 | 26 | 41 | 68 | -27 | 46 |
| R | MK Dons | 46 | 11 | 12 | 23 | 44 | 66 | -22 | 45 |
| 22 | Morecambe | 46 | 10 | 14 | 22 | 47 | 78 | -31 | 44 |
| R | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 46 | 11 | 11 | 24 | 40 | 77 | -37 | 44 |
| R | Forest Green RoversForest Green | 46 | 6 | 9 | 31 | 31 | 89 | -58 | 27 |
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