Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 58.74%. A draw had a probability of 24% and a win for Leganes had a probability of 17.25%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.01%) and 2-1 (9.41%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.21%), while for a Leganes win it was 0-1 (6.68%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atletico Madrid would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Atletico Madrid | Draw | Leganes |
| 58.74% ( | 24.01% ( | 17.25% ( |
| Both teams to score 44.15% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 44.62% ( | 55.38% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23.42% ( | 76.58% ( |
| Atletico Madrid Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.33% ( | 18.67% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 50% ( | 50% ( |
| Leganes Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 54.29% ( | 45.71% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 18.5% ( | 81.49% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Atletico Madrid | Draw | Leganes |
| 1-0 @ 14.32% ( 2-0 @ 12.01% ( 2-1 @ 9.41% ( 3-0 @ 6.72% ( 3-1 @ 5.26% ( 4-0 @ 2.82% ( 4-1 @ 2.21% ( 3-2 @ 2.06% ( 5-0 @ 0.95% ( Other @ 2.97% Total : 58.73% | 1-1 @ 11.21% ( 0-0 @ 8.53% ( 2-2 @ 3.68% ( Other @ 0.58% Total : 24.01% | 0-1 @ 6.68% ( 1-2 @ 4.39% ( 0-2 @ 2.62% ( 1-3 @ 1.15% ( 2-3 @ 0.96% ( Other @ 1.46% Total : 17.25% |

| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Barcelona | 38 | 28 | 4 | 6 | 102 | 39 | 63 | 88 |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 38 | 26 | 6 | 6 | 78 | 38 | 40 | 84 |
| 3 | Atletico MadridAtletico | 38 | 22 | 10 | 6 | 68 | 30 | 38 | 76 |
| 4 | Athletic Bilbao | 38 | 19 | 13 | 6 | 54 | 29 | 25 | 70 |
| 5 | Villarreal | 38 | 20 | 10 | 8 | 71 | 51 | 20 | 70 |
| 6 | Real BetisBetis | 38 | 16 | 12 | 10 | 57 | 50 | 7 | 60 |
| 7 | Celta Vigo | 38 | 16 | 7 | 15 | 59 | 57 | 2 | 55 |
| 8 | Osasuna | 38 | 12 | 16 | 10 | 48 | 52 | -4 | 52 |
| 9 | Rayo Vallecano | 38 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 41 | 45 | -4 | 52 |
| 10 | Mallorca | 38 | 13 | 9 | 16 | 35 | 44 | -9 | 48 |
| 11 | Valencia | 38 | 11 | 13 | 14 | 44 | 54 | -10 | 46 |
| 12 | Real Sociedad | 38 | 13 | 7 | 18 | 35 | 46 | -11 | 46 |
| 13 | Getafe | 38 | 11 | 9 | 18 | 34 | 39 | -5 | 42 |
| 14 | AlavesAlaves | 38 | 10 | 12 | 16 | 38 | 48 | -10 | 42 |
| 15 | Espanyol | 38 | 11 | 9 | 18 | 40 | 51 | -11 | 42 |
| 16 | Sevilla | 38 | 10 | 11 | 17 | 42 | 55 | -13 | 41 |
| 17 | GironaGirona | 38 | 11 | 8 | 19 | 44 | 60 | -16 | 41 |
| 18 | Leganes | 38 | 9 | 13 | 16 | 39 | 56 | -17 | 40 |
| R | Las PalmasLas Palmas | 38 | 8 | 8 | 22 | 40 | 61 | -21 | 32 |
| R | Real ValladolidValladolid | 38 | 4 | 4 | 30 | 26 | 90 | -64 | 16 |
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