Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 65.09%. A draw had a probability of 19.1% and a win for FC Volendam had a probability of 15.77%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.82%) and 0-1 (8.82%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.84%), while for a FC Volendam win it was 2-1 (4.43%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| FC Volendam | Draw | AZ Alkmaar | 
| 15.77% (  0.01) | 19.13% (  0.14) | 65.09% (  -0.16) | 
| Both teams to score 56.46% (  -0.51) | 
| Goals | 
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 
| 62.61% (  -0.68) | 37.39% (  0.67) | 
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 | 
| 40.39% (  -0.73) | 59.61% (  0.73) | 
| FC Volendam Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 63.29% (  -0.41) | 36.71% (  0.4) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 26.5% (  -0.41) | 73.5% (  0.41) | 
| AZ Alkmaar Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 89.21% (  -0.24) | 10.79% (  0.23) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 65.19% (  -0.52) | 34.81% (  0.52) | 
| Score Analysis | 
| FC Volendam | Draw | AZ Alkmaar | 
| 2-1 @ 4.43% (  0) 1-0 @ 3.97% (  0.09) 2-0 @ 1.99% (  0.02) 3-2 @ 1.65% (  -0.03) 3-1 @ 1.48% (  -0.01) Other @ 2.26% Total : 15.78% | 1-1 @ 8.84% (  0.11) 2-2 @ 4.93% (  -0.04) 0-0 @ 3.96% (  0.13) 3-3 @ 1.22% (  -0.04) Other @ 0.19% Total : 19.14% | 1-2 @ 9.84% (  0.02) 0-2 @ 9.82% (  0.13) 0-1 @ 8.82% (  0.2) 1-3 @ 7.3% (  -0.05) 0-3 @ 7.29% (  0.03) 1-4 @ 4.07% (  -0.07) 0-4 @ 4.06% (  -0.02) 2-3 @ 3.66% (  -0.07) 2-4 @ 2.04% (  -0.06) 1-5 @ 1.81% (  -0.05) 0-5 @ 1.81% (  -0.03) 2-5 @ 0.91% (  -0.03) Other @ 3.68% Total : 65.09% | 
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Feyenoord | 26 | 18 | 7 | 1 | 59 | 25 | 34 | 61 | 
| 2 | Ajax | 26 | 16 | 7 | 3 | 72 | 28 | 44 | 55 | 
| 3 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 26 | 16 | 5 | 5 | 67 | 31 | 36 | 53 | 
| 4 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 26 | 16 | 5 | 5 | 52 | 30 | 22 | 53 | 
| 5 | FC Twente | 26 | 13 | 8 | 5 | 44 | 22 | 22 | 47 | 
| 6 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 26 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 41 | 27 | 14 | 46 | 
| 7 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 26 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 42 | 41 | 1 | 38 | 
| 8 | NECNijmegen | 26 | 7 | 13 | 6 | 35 | 26 | 9 | 34 | 
| 9 | Heerenveen | 26 | 9 | 7 | 10 | 31 | 36 | -5 | 34 | 
| 10 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 25 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 40 | 40 | 0 | 32 | 
| 11 | Go Ahead Eagles | 25 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 36 | 44 | -8 | 29 | 
| 12 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 26 | 8 | 5 | 13 | 32 | 46 | -14 | 29 | 
| 13 | FC VolendamVolendam | 26 | 7 | 5 | 14 | 31 | 56 | -25 | 26 | 
| 14 | Vitesse | 26 | 5 | 9 | 12 | 30 | 46 | -16 | 24 | 
| 15 | SBV ExcelsiorExcelsior | 26 | 7 | 2 | 17 | 25 | 61 | -36 | 23 | 
| 16 | EmmenEmmen | 26 | 4 | 9 | 13 | 23 | 45 | -22 | 21 | 
| 17 | Groningen | 26 | 4 | 5 | 17 | 25 | 52 | -27 | 17 | 
| 18 | Cambuur | 26 | 4 | 4 | 18 | 20 | 49 | -29 | 16 | 
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