Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Retro win with a probability of 39.6%. A win for Jequie had a probability of 31.05% and a draw had a probability of 29.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Retro win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (7.82%) and 1-2 (7.77%). The likeliest Jequie win was 1-0 (11.5%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.37%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Retro would win this match.