Saturday, June 14

Sports Mole previews Saturday’s Queen’s Club Championships semi-final between Tatjana Maria and Madison Keys, including predictions, head-to-head and their tournament so far.

In her biggest semi-final on the women’s tour in three years, Tatjana Maria seeks another stunning victory in Saturday’s semi-final at the Queen’s Club Championships to secure a place in Sunday’s championship match at the expense of Madison Keys.

The German veteran overcame Elena Rybakina on Friday, achieving a third consecutive upset at Queen’s, and the former Wimbledon semi-finalist aims for a fourth to reach the title match against Qinwen Zheng or Amanda Anisimova.

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Match preview

Having navigated qualifying at the Queen’s Club, 37-year-old Maria has now secured a trio of commendable victories to reach the last four in this week’s WTA 500 event.

Not only has the veteran overcome two former Grand Slam runners-up, Leylah Fernandez and Karolina Muchova, but she followed up those stunning triumphs with an upset against a former Slam champion on grass, Rybakina.

The latest success, achieved in two tight sets, required the German player to save 10 of the 12 break points her Kazakhstani opponent created while converting three of the five break points she fashioned on the 2022 Wimbledon champion’s serves, defeating the nine-time WTA champion in one hour and 45 minutes.

As a result of consecutive top-20 victories, Maria is into her first tour-level semi-final since 2023 in Cleveland and the first in a WTA 500 event or higher since reaching the semis at Wimbledon three years ago.

Now the experienced three-time titlist strives to secure a top-10 victory to reach the championship match and have a shot at claiming a title for the first time since April 2023.

First, Maria must get through the challenge of hard-hitting Keys, who outlasted Diana Shnaider 2-6, 6-3, 6-4 in a tight quarter-final match in West Kensington.

The American player needed to dig deep after losing the opening set against the Russian to claim sets two and three, thereby advancing to a fourth semi-final on the tour in 2025 and her first since Indian Wells in March.

That run in the desert ended in a resounding defeat at the hands of Aryna Sabalenka, snapping a 16-match winning streak during which she defeated the Belarusian to claim her maiden Grand Slam title in Australia.

Although Keys’s last-four opponent in London is not at Sabalenka’s lofty level, Maria’s ability to manipulate the pace of baseline exchanges and her unpredictable shot-making could make Saturday’s contest far from straightforward.

Having improved to 30-7 in 2025, the world No. 8 and second seed at the Queen's Club strives for a 31st victory to advance to the title match against Zheng or Anisimova for a chance at securing an 11th WTA title.

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Tournament so far

Tatjana Maria:

First round: vs. Leylah Fernandez 7-6[4] 6-2

Second round: vs. Karolina Muchova 6-7[3] 7-5 6-1

Quarter-final: vs. Elena Rybakina 6-4 7-6[4]

Madison Keys:

First round: Bye

Second round: vs. Anastasia Zakharova 6-3 6-2

Quarter-final: vs. Diana Shnaider 2-6 6-3 6-4

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Head To Head

Charleston (2019) - Round of 32: Keys 7-6(5) 4-6 6-4 

US Open (2017) - Second round: Keys 6-3 6-4 

Wimbledon (2015) - Third round: Keys 6-3 6-4

Maria has never defeated Keys in their three meetings, although both women have not faced off since 2019.

Aiming to improve to 4-0 in their head-to-head, the American seeks to emerge victorious in their first matchup on grass in a decade; Keys won their third-round encounter at Wimbledon in 2015.

The world No. 8 has a record of 11-1 against opponents ranked lower than No. 50 in the world, losing only to Alexandra Eala in Miami, and has been beaten just twice by players in that bracket in the last 52 weeks (15-2), also losing to countrywoman Peyton Stearns in Toronto last August.

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We say: Keys to win in two sets

Although Maria’s run has been admirable, the German veteran’s progress is expected to be halted by the second seed.

Keys has defeated her last six opponents ranked below No. 50 in straight sets, and the Australian Open champion is anticipated to record a seventh on Saturday. ID:575504:1false2false3false: from db desktop :LenBod:collect6303:

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