Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Caernarfon Town win with a probability of 40.18%. A win for Haverfordwest County had a probability of 36.69% and a draw had a probability of 23.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Caernarfon Town win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.38%) and 2-0 (5.34%). The likeliest Haverfordwest County win was 1-2 (8.09%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.16%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 5.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Caernarfon Town would win this match.
