Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Defensor Sporting win with a probability of 42.42%. A win for Plaza Colonia had a probability of 30.38% and a draw had a probability of 27.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Defensor Sporting win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.62%) and 2-0 (7.9%). The likeliest Plaza Colonia win was 0-1 (9.59%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.85%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Defensor Sporting would win this match.
