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Premier League | Gameweek 4
Sep 14, 2024 at 5.30pm UK
Villa Park
Everton logo

Aston Villa
3 - 2
Everton

Watkins (36', 58'), Duran (76')
Martinez (47'), Emery (85')
FT(HT: 1-2)
McNeil (16'), Calvert-Lewin (27')
Ndiaye (15'), Iroegbunam (19'), Young (79'), O'Brien (88')

The Match

Match Report

Ollie Watkins nets a brace and Jhon Duran scores a stunning long-range goal as Aston Villa come back from two goals down to beat Everton 3-2 at Villa Park.

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Premier League clash between Aston Villa and Everton, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aston Villa win with a probability of 44.32%. A win for Everton had a probability of 32.16% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.

The most likely scoreline for an Aston Villa win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.51%) and 2-0 (6.39%). The likeliest Everton win was 1-2 (7.56%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.65%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Aston Villa would win this match.

Result
Aston VillaDrawEverton
44.32% (-0.155 -0.16)23.52% (-0.016000000000002 -0.02)32.16% (0.173 0.17)
Both teams to score 61.96% (0.144 0.14)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
60.31% (0.156 0.16)39.69% (-0.154 -0.15)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
37.96% (0.162 0.16)62.04% (-0.161 -0.16)
Aston Villa Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
81.75% (-0.0010000000000048 -0)18.25% (0.0010000000000012 0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
50.7% (-0.0020000000000024 -0)49.29% (0.0020000000000024 0)
Everton Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
75.8% (0.175 0.17)24.2% (-0.175 -0.18)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
41.46% (0.247 0.25)58.54% (-0.247 -0.25)
Score Analysis
    Aston Villa 44.32%
    Everton 32.16%
    Draw 23.51%
Aston VillaDrawEverton
2-1 @ 9.07% (-0.020000000000001 -0.02)
1-0 @ 7.51% (-0.055000000000001 -0.06)
2-0 @ 6.39% (-0.047 -0.05)
3-1 @ 5.14% (-0.011 -0.01)
3-2 @ 3.65% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
3-0 @ 3.62% (-0.026 -0.03)
4-1 @ 2.19% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
4-2 @ 1.55% (0.0049999999999999 0)
4-0 @ 1.54% (-0.011 -0.01)
Other @ 3.66%
Total : 44.32%
1-1 @ 10.65% (-0.029999999999999 -0.03)
2-2 @ 6.43% (0.019 0.02)
0-0 @ 4.42% (-0.031000000000001 -0.03)
3-3 @ 1.73% (0.014 0.01)
Other @ 0.29%
Total : 23.51%
1-2 @ 7.56% (0.023000000000001 0.02)
0-1 @ 6.27% (-0.013 -0.01)
0-2 @ 4.45% (0.013 0.01)
1-3 @ 3.58% (0.029 0.03)
2-3 @ 3.04% (0.025 0.02)
0-3 @ 2.1% (0.017 0.02)
1-4 @ 1.27% (0.017 0.02)
2-4 @ 1.08% (0.014 0.01)
Other @ 2.82%
Total : 32.16%

How you voted: Aston Villa vs Everton

Aston Villa
83.5%
Draw
10.7%
Everton
5.8%
242
Head to Head
Jan 14, 2024 2pm
Gameweek 21
Everton
0-0
Aston Villa
Tarkowski (73')
Watkins (31'), Carlos (48'), Lenglet (73'), Tielemans (75')
Sep 27, 2023 7.45pm
Third Round
Aston Villa
1-2
Everton
Kamara (83')
Watkins (46'), Digne (74'), Konsa (79'), Luiz (90+4')
Garner (15'), Calvert-Lewin (50')
Patterson (48'), Tarkowski (66'), McNeil (90+4')
Aug 20, 2023 2pm
Gameweek 2
Aston Villa
4-0
Everton
McGinn (18'), Luiz (24' pen.), Bailey (51'), Duran (75')
Luiz (14'), Digne (33'), Archer (89')

Pickford (24'), Keane (45+4'), Gueye (45+9'), Patterson (86')
Feb 25, 2023 3pm
Gameweek 25
Everton
0-2
Aston Villa
Watkins (63' pen.), Buendia (81')
Aug 13, 2022 12.30pm
Gameweek 2
Aston Villa
2-1
Everton
Ings (31'), Buendia (85')
Coutinho (29'), Digne (49'), Ings (75'), Young (90+8')
Digne (87' og.)
Davies (43')
rhs 2.0
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
CLiverpool38259486414584
2Arsenal382014469343574
3Manchester CityMan City38218972442871
4Chelsea38209964432169
5Newcastle UnitedNewcastle382061268472166
6Aston Villa38199105851766
7Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest381981158461265
8Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton38161396659761
9Bournemouth3815111258461256
10Brentford38168146657956
11Fulham38159145454054
12Crystal Palace381314115151053
13Everton381115124244-248
14West Ham UnitedWest Ham381110174662-1643
15Manchester UnitedMan Utd38119184454-1042
16Wolverhampton WanderersWolves38126205469-1542
17Tottenham HotspurSpurs38115226465-138
RLeicester CityLeicester3867253380-4725
RIpswich TownIpswich38410243682-4622
RSouthampton3826302686-6012


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