Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aston Villa win with a probability of 44.32%. A win for Everton had a probability of 32.16% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.
The most likely scoreline for an Aston Villa win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.51%) and 2-0 (6.39%). The likeliest Everton win was 1-2 (7.56%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.65%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Aston Villa would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Aston Villa | Draw | Everton | 
| 44.32% (  -0.16) | 23.52% (  -0.02) | 32.16% (  0.17) | 
| Both teams to score 61.96% (  0.14) | 
| Goals | 
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 
| 60.31% (  0.16) | 39.69% (  -0.15) | 
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 | 
| 37.96% (  0.16) | 62.04% (  -0.16) | 
| Aston Villa Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 81.75% (  -0) | 18.25% (  0) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 50.7% (  -0) | 49.29% (  0) | 
| Everton Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 75.8% (  0.17) | 24.2% (  -0.18) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 41.46% (  0.25) | 58.54% (  -0.25) | 
| Score Analysis | 
| Aston Villa | Draw | Everton | 
| 2-1 @ 9.07% (  -0.02) 1-0 @ 7.51% (  -0.06) 2-0 @ 6.39% (  -0.05) 3-1 @ 5.14% (  -0.01) 3-2 @ 3.65% (  0.01) 3-0 @ 3.62% (  -0.03) 4-1 @ 2.19% (  -0) 4-2 @ 1.55% (  0) 4-0 @ 1.54% (  -0.01) Other @ 3.66% Total : 44.32% | 1-1 @ 10.65% (  -0.03) 2-2 @ 6.43% (  0.02) 0-0 @ 4.42% (  -0.03) 3-3 @ 1.73% (  0.01) Other @ 0.29% Total : 23.51% | 1-2 @ 7.56% (  0.02) 0-1 @ 6.27% (  -0.01) 0-2 @ 4.45% (  0.01) 1-3 @ 3.58% (  0.03) 2-3 @ 3.04% (  0.02) 0-3 @ 2.1% (  0.02) 1-4 @ 1.27% (  0.02) 2-4 @ 1.08% (  0.01) Other @ 2.82% Total : 32.16% | 

| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Liverpool | 38 | 25 | 9 | 4 | 86 | 41 | 45 | 84 | 
| 2 | Arsenal | 38 | 20 | 14 | 4 | 69 | 34 | 35 | 74 | 
| 3 | Manchester CityMan City | 38 | 21 | 8 | 9 | 72 | 44 | 28 | 71 | 
| 4 | Chelsea | 38 | 20 | 9 | 9 | 64 | 43 | 21 | 69 | 
| 5 | Newcastle UnitedNewcastle | 38 | 20 | 6 | 12 | 68 | 47 | 21 | 66 | 
| 6 | Aston Villa | 38 | 19 | 9 | 10 | 58 | 51 | 7 | 66 | 
| 7 | Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest | 38 | 19 | 8 | 11 | 58 | 46 | 12 | 65 | 
| 8 | Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton | 38 | 16 | 13 | 9 | 66 | 59 | 7 | 61 | 
| 9 | Bournemouth | 38 | 15 | 11 | 12 | 58 | 46 | 12 | 56 | 
| 10 | Brentford | 38 | 16 | 8 | 14 | 66 | 57 | 9 | 56 | 
| 11 | Fulham | 38 | 15 | 9 | 14 | 54 | 54 | 0 | 54 | 
| 12 | Crystal Palace | 38 | 13 | 14 | 11 | 51 | 51 | 0 | 53 | 
| 13 | Everton | 38 | 11 | 15 | 12 | 42 | 44 | -2 | 48 | 
| 14 | West Ham UnitedWest Ham | 38 | 11 | 10 | 17 | 46 | 62 | -16 | 43 | 
| 15 | Manchester UnitedMan Utd | 38 | 11 | 9 | 18 | 44 | 54 | -10 | 42 | 
| 16 | Wolverhampton WanderersWolves | 38 | 12 | 6 | 20 | 54 | 69 | -15 | 42 | 
| 17 | Tottenham HotspurSpurs | 38 | 11 | 5 | 22 | 64 | 65 | -1 | 38 | 
| R | Leicester CityLeicester | 38 | 6 | 7 | 25 | 33 | 80 | -47 | 25 | 
| R | Ipswich TownIpswich | 38 | 4 | 10 | 24 | 36 | 82 | -46 | 22 | 
| R | Southampton | 38 | 2 | 6 | 30 | 26 | 86 | -60 | 12 | 
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