Premier League

Premier League | Gameweek 20

Dec 30, 2023 at 3pm UK

Villa Park

Aston Villa
3 - 2
Burnley

Bailey (28'), Diaby (42'), Luiz (89' pen.)
Konsa (18'), Ramsey (88'), McGinn (90+8'), Martinez (90+6')

FT(HT: 2-1)

Amdouni (31'), Foster (71')
Taylor (23'), Berge (42')
Berge (56')

The Match

Match Report

Douglas Luiz stepped up to score a late penalty to secure a 3-2 win over 10-man Burnley, sending the Villans to second place in the Premier League, level with Liverpool.

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Premier League clash between Aston Villa and Burnley, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Aston Villa

All competitions

Premier League

Last Game: Man Utd 3-2 Aston Villa
Tuesday, December 26 at 8pm in Premier League

Goals
for

Top scorers

Burnley

All competitions

Last Game: Burnley 0-2 Liverpool
Tuesday, December 26 at 5.30pm in Premier League

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aston Villa win with a probability of 62.67%. A draw had a probability of 20.7% and a win for Burnley had a probability of 16.66%.

The most likely scoreline for an Aston Villa win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.34%) and 2-1 (9.94%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.76%), while for a Burnley win it was 0-1 (4.79%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Aston Villa would win this match.

Result
Aston Villa	Draw	Burnley
62.67% ( 0.35)	20.66% ( 0.09)	16.66% ( -0.44)

Both teams to score 53.11% (

-1.25)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

57.22% (

-1.19)

42.77% (

1.19)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

34.82% (

-1.19)

65.18% (

1.19)

Aston Villa Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

86.94% (

-0.27)

13.05% (

0.27)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

60.36% (

-0.55)

39.63% (

0.54)

Burnley Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

61.08% (

-1.24)

38.92% (

1.24)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

24.35% (

-1.19)

75.65% (

1.19)

Score Analysis

Aston Villa 62.67%

Burnley 16.66%

Draw 20.66%

Aston Villa	Draw	Burnley
2-0 @ 10.53% ( 0.34) 1-0 @ 10.34% ( 0.43) 2-1 @ 9.94% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 7.15% ( 0.16) 3-1 @ 6.75% ( -0.07) 4-0 @ 3.64% ( 0.05) 4-1 @ 3.43% ( -0.07) 3-2 @ 3.18% ( -0.15) 4-2 @ 1.62% ( -0.09) 5-0 @ 1.48% ( 0) 5-1 @ 1.4% ( -0.04) Other @ 3.21% Total : 62.67%	1-1 @ 9.76% ( 0.09) 0-0 @ 5.08% ( 0.26) 2-2 @ 4.69% ( -0.17) 3-3 @ 1% ( -0.08) Other @ 0.13% Total : 20.66%	0-1 @ 4.79% ( 0.09) 1-2 @ 4.61% ( -0.12) 0-2 @ 2.26% ( -0.03) 2-3 @ 1.48% ( -0.11) 1-3 @ 1.45% ( -0.09) Other @ 2.08% Total : 16.66%