Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Kazakhstan win with a probability of 41.56%. A win for Azerbaijan had a probability of 35.81% and a draw had a probability of 22.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Kazakhstan win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (5.94%) and 2-0 (5.24%). The likeliest Azerbaijan win was 1-2 (7.86%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.66%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 5.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Kazakhstan would win this match.