Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chesterfield win with a probability of 58.23%. A draw had a probability of 23.2% and a win for Barnet had a probability of 18.61%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chesterfield win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.95%) and 2-1 (9.76%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11%), while for a Barnet win it was 0-1 (6.2%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Chesterfield would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Chesterfield | Draw | Barnet |
| 58.23% | 23.16% | 18.61% |
| Both teams to score 48.94% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 49.75% | 50.25% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 27.79% | 72.21% |
| Chesterfield Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.02% | 16.97% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 52.92% | 47.08% |
| Barnet Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 58.95% | 41.05% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 22.4% | 77.6% |
| Score Analysis |
| Chesterfield | Draw | Barnet |
| 1-0 @ 12.35% 2-0 @ 10.95% 2-1 @ 9.76% 3-0 @ 6.48% 3-1 @ 5.77% 4-0 @ 2.87% 3-2 @ 2.57% 4-1 @ 2.56% 4-2 @ 1.14% 5-0 @ 1.02% 5-1 @ 0.91% Other @ 1.85% Total : 58.22% | 1-1 @ 11% 0-0 @ 6.97% 2-2 @ 4.34% Other @ 0.84% Total : 23.15% | 0-1 @ 6.2% 1-2 @ 4.9% 0-2 @ 2.76% 1-3 @ 1.45% 2-3 @ 1.29% Other @ 2% Total : 18.61% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Wrexham | 27 | 20 | 5 | 2 | 70 | 23 | 47 | 65 |
| 2 | Notts County | 27 | 18 | 8 | 1 | 69 | 25 | 44 | 62 |
| 3 | Chesterfield | 24 | 16 | 4 | 4 | 50 | 27 | 23 | 52 |
| 4 | Woking | 26 | 16 | 4 | 6 | 47 | 25 | 22 | 52 |
| 5 | Barnet | 24 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 44 | 41 | 3 | 41 |
| 6 | Bromley | 27 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 40 | 35 | 5 | 39 |
| 7 | Dagenham & RedbridgeDag & Red | 25 | 11 | 6 | 8 | 40 | 39 | 1 | 39 |
| 8 | Southend UnitedSouthend | 25 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 33 | 21 | 12 | 38 |
| 9 | WealdstoneWealdstone | 25 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 32 | 36 | -4 | 37 |
| 10 | AltrinchamAltrincham | 27 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 40 | 48 | -8 | 36 |
| 11 | Eastleigh | 26 | 10 | 5 | 11 | 32 | 33 | -1 | 35 |
| 12 | Boreham WoodBoreham Wood | 24 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 28 | 25 | 3 | 33 |
| 13 | Solihull MoorsSolihull | 25 | 9 | 6 | 10 | 37 | 36 | 1 | 33 |
| 14 | Aldershot TownAldershot | 28 | 10 | 3 | 15 | 39 | 47 | -8 | 33 |
| 15 | York City | 27 | 8 | 8 | 11 | 32 | 32 | 0 | 32 |
| 16 | Halifax TownHalifax | 26 | 9 | 5 | 12 | 24 | 33 | -9 | 32 |
| 17 | Dorking WanderersDorking | 27 | 8 | 6 | 13 | 44 | 64 | -20 | 30 |
| 18 | Maidenhead UnitedMaidenhead | 27 | 8 | 5 | 14 | 29 | 40 | -11 | 29 |
| 19 | Yeovil TownYeovil | 25 | 5 | 12 | 8 | 21 | 26 | -5 | 27 |
| 20 | Oldham AthleticOldham | 25 | 7 | 6 | 12 | 32 | 40 | -8 | 27 |
| 21 | Gateshead | 26 | 4 | 10 | 12 | 31 | 44 | -13 | 22 |
| 22 | Torquay UnitedTorquay Utd | 26 | 5 | 7 | 14 | 29 | 49 | -20 | 22 |
| 23 | Scunthorpe UnitedScunthorpe | 28 | 5 | 7 | 16 | 33 | 55 | -22 | 22 |
| 24 | Maidstone UnitedMaidstone | 29 | 5 | 6 | 18 | 33 | 65 | -32 | 21 |
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