A spot in the postseason is within reach for the Vancouver Whitecaps, who can officially clinch a playoff berth with a win on Tuesday at Banc of California Stadium against Los Angeles FC.
The Black-and-Gold come into their second to last regular season match knowing that they could temporarily move into a playoff position in the Western Conference if they can defeat a Vancouver side that have never beaten them on their home field.
Match preview
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Coming into October, Bob Bradley knew that his team had to make a move and start earning points, and to their credit, his players have responded.
LA picked up 11 out of a possible 15 points in their last five games and got some help, namely from Real Salt Lake and the Los Angeles Galaxy, who each lost in their previous game, opening the door just slightly for the 2019 Supporters' Shield winners.
Last week, LAFC took advantage of some uncharacteristically poor defending by the Seattle Sounders, jumping out to a 3-0 lead after only 51 minutes in what was perhaps their best all-around performance in quite some time.
Last Tuesday, the intensity showed by the players is what this team had been missing in several matches this year, as they got after their opponents, were quicker to the loose balls and a lot more compact defensively, maintaining a clean sheet for the first time since early September.
The Black-and-Gold have been dynamic in the final third at home, scoring at least three goals or more in five of their last six matches, though they have only been able to hold one team scoreless over that stretch.
It has taken a collective effort to get this team back on track, and in contention for the playoffs and with only two games remaining, they may very well be able to avoid missing the postseason for the first time in club history.
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One of the feel-good stories in Major League Soccer this year has been the Vancouver Whitecaps, who looked destined to miss the playoffs for a fourth successive campaign in the early going.
What this team have done since Vanni Sartini took over as interim manager in late August is quite remarkable, capturing 24 points in 12 matches, losing only twice in that stretch, and they have needed every one of those points as the teams above them have rarely lost.
Their Italian coach has captured the imagination of MLS pundits with his passionate locker room speeches, something that this team have needed at times to kickstart them in the right direction.
While the results are there, the Caps tend to be shaky for one half before reacting well in the other half, as their passing and defensive work was not consistently sharp in their previous three games, but they were able to turn it around with a solid team effort in the second half against the Portland Timbers, San Jose Earthquakes and Minnesota United.
Opposing coaches have to be mentally exhausted trying to figure out how to prepare to play against the Caps as Sartini has put together a variety of different formations and is not afraid to change his lineup, going with a different starting 11 in every match since taking charge, using at least 22 different starters.
If they can win their final two matches, not only would they qualify for the postseason for the first time since 2017, but they would also tie their MLS regular-season record for points of 53 set in 2015.
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Team News
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Whenever Cristian Arango touches the ball, good things seem to happen for LAFC, as the Colombian forward has seven goals in his last four games, while midfielder Latif Blessing was instrumental on Tuesday, scoring a goal and picking up an assist in their victory versus the Rave Green.
Arango picked a bad time to receive a caution, as he will be suspended for this match because of yellow card accumulation, while Kwadwo Opoku, Erik Duenas and Francisco Ginella are out with left knee injuries, Eddie Segura has a right knee issue, Alvaro Quezada continues to struggle with a chest problem, a right shoulder injury is hampering Eduard Atuesta and Julian Gaines is out because of a pelvic stress fracture.
Jamal Blackman made five saves to pick up his first career MLS shutout on Tuesday, while Carlos Vela has four goals in his LAFC career versus Vancouver.
Since joining the Caps, Brian White has been spectacular, scoring the winner on Wednesday against Minnesota, his 12th of the year as he was named to the MLS Team of the Week three times in October.
He and midfielder Ryan Gauld have formed quite the partnership, as the Scotsman set up the game-winner by White in their last match, while Maxime Crepeau, who might very well be the MVP for this team in 2021, will try to exercise some demons at Banc of California Stadium, after conceding six goals in their 6-1 defeat to LA in his last start against them in 2019.
The Caps will be without Caio Alexandre with a left foot problem, Tosaint Ricketts has a right calf strain, Andy Rose has a left calf strain and Janio Bikel is questionable with a left adductor strain.
Los Angeles FC possible starting lineup:
Blackman; Fall, Murillo, Harvey, Blackmon; Kim, Blessing, Crisostomo; Edwards, Rodriguez; Musovski
Vancouver Whitecaps possible starting lineup:
Crepeau; Gutierrez, Veselinovic, Nerwinski; Gaspar, Teibert, Bikel, Brown; Gauld; White, Dajome
We say: Los Angeles FC 1-2 Vancouver Whitecaps
LA have outscored Vancouver 16-5 in their three home matches against them, but this is a different Caps team, who are playing with a passion and intensity that we have not seen in past seasons.
No Arango could spell trouble for LA as he has carried this side over the past few weeks, while the Whitecaps have had a variety of individuals step up, and they have a striker in Brian White, who is probably in the best form of his life.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Los Angeles FC win with a probability of 68.32%. A draw had a probability of 18.4% and a win for Vancouver Whitecaps had a probability of 13.29%.
The most likely scoreline for a Los Angeles FC win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.79%) and 2-1 (9.74%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.65%), while for a Vancouver Whitecaps win it was 0-1 (3.84%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood.
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