We said: Oxford United 2-1 Portsmouth
Portsmouth only have themselves to blame for not being in the playoff mix, with Saturday's clash against sixth-placed Oxford well and truly a must-win if they harbour any remaining hopes of promotion.
Oxford will be confident of extending their impressive run of form, with a home victory the most likely scenario this weekend.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Oxford United win with a probability of 51.39%. A win for Portsmouth had a probability of 24.73% and a draw had a probability of 23.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Oxford United win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.68%) and 2-0 (8.67%). The likeliest Portsmouth win was 0-1 (6.58%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.28%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Oxford United would win this match.
