Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 59.25%. A draw had a probability of 22.8% and a win for Forest Green Rovers had a probability of 17.94%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.13%) and 1-2 (9.78%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.83%), while for a Forest Green Rovers win it was 1-0 (6.01%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with an 11.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Forest Green Rovers | Draw | Derby County | 
| 17.94% (  0.02) | 22.8% (  0.01) | 59.25% (  -0.02) | 
| Both teams to score 48.82% (  0.01) | 
| Goals | 
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 
| 50.2% (  -0) | 49.79% (  0) | 
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 | 
| 28.2% (  -0) | 71.8% (  0) | 
| Forest Green Rovers Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 58.43% (  0.01) | 41.56% (  -0.01) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 21.94% (  0.01) | 78.05% (  -0.01) | 
| Derby County Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 83.54% (  -0.01) | 16.46% (  0.01) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 53.84% (  -0.02) | 46.15% (  0.02) | 
| Score Analysis | 
| Forest Green Rovers | Draw | Derby County | 
| 1-0 @ 6.01% (  0) 2-1 @ 4.76% (  0) 2-0 @ 2.64% (  0) 3-1 @ 1.39% (  0) 3-2 @ 1.26% (  0) Other @ 1.89% Total : 17.94% | 1-1 @ 10.83% 0-0 @ 6.84% (  0) 2-2 @ 4.29% (  0) Other @ 0.84% Total : 22.8% | 0-1 @ 12.34% 0-2 @ 11.13% (  -0.01) 1-2 @ 9.78% (  -0) 0-3 @ 6.7% (  -0) 1-3 @ 5.88% (  -0) 0-4 @ 3.02% (  -0) 1-4 @ 2.65% (  -0) 2-3 @ 2.58% 2-4 @ 1.16% (  -0) 0-5 @ 1.09% (  -0) 1-5 @ 0.96% (  -0) Other @ 1.96% Total : 59.25% | 
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Plymouth ArgylePlymouth | 46 | 31 | 8 | 7 | 82 | 47 | 35 | 101 | 
| P | Ipswich TownIpswich | 46 | 28 | 14 | 4 | 101 | 35 | 66 | 98 | 
| 3 | Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds | 46 | 28 | 12 | 6 | 81 | 37 | 44 | 96 | 
| 4 | Barnsley | 46 | 26 | 8 | 12 | 80 | 47 | 33 | 86 | 
| 5 | Bolton WanderersBolton | 46 | 23 | 12 | 11 | 62 | 36 | 26 | 81 | 
| 6 | Peterborough UnitedPeterborough | 46 | 24 | 5 | 17 | 75 | 54 | 21 | 77 | 
| 7 | Derby CountyDerby | 46 | 21 | 13 | 12 | 67 | 46 | 21 | 76 | 
| 8 | Portsmouth | 46 | 17 | 19 | 10 | 61 | 50 | 11 | 70 | 
| 9 | Wycombe WanderersWycombe | 46 | 20 | 9 | 17 | 59 | 51 | 8 | 69 | 
| 10 | Charlton AthleticCharlton | 46 | 16 | 14 | 16 | 70 | 66 | 4 | 62 | 
| 11 | Lincoln CityLincoln | 46 | 14 | 20 | 12 | 47 | 47 | 0 | 62 | 
| 12 | Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury | 46 | 17 | 8 | 21 | 52 | 61 | -9 | 59 | 
| 13 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 46 | 14 | 16 | 16 | 53 | 51 | 2 | 58 | 
| 14 | Exeter CityExeter | 46 | 15 | 11 | 20 | 64 | 68 | -4 | 56 | 
| 15 | Burton Albion | 46 | 15 | 11 | 20 | 57 | 79 | -22 | 56 | 
| 16 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 46 | 14 | 12 | 20 | 45 | 61 | -16 | 54 | 
| 17 | Bristol Rovers | 46 | 14 | 11 | 21 | 58 | 73 | -15 | 53 | 
| 18 | Port Vale | 46 | 13 | 10 | 23 | 48 | 71 | -23 | 49 | 
| 19 | Oxford UnitedOxford Utd | 46 | 11 | 14 | 21 | 49 | 56 | -7 | 47 | 
| 20 | Cambridge UnitedCambridge | 46 | 13 | 7 | 26 | 41 | 68 | -27 | 46 | 
| R | MK Dons | 46 | 11 | 12 | 23 | 44 | 66 | -22 | 45 | 
| 22 | Morecambe | 46 | 10 | 14 | 22 | 47 | 78 | -31 | 44 | 
| R | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 46 | 11 | 11 | 24 | 40 | 77 | -37 | 44 | 
| R | Forest Green RoversForest Green | 46 | 6 | 9 | 31 | 31 | 89 | -58 | 27 | 
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